EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is trading at 1.0907 above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the indicator Cloud near 1.0875 is expected, followed by growth to 1.1045. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the ascending channel. The growth will be canceled in the case of a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and closing below 1.0805, which will mean further falling to 1.0715.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is trading at 1701 above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the lower border of the indicator Cloud near 1690 is expected, followed by growth to 1755. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the support level. The growth will be canceled in the case of a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and closing below 1679, which will mean further falling to 1645. The growth will be confirmed by a breakaway of the resistance area and closing above 1712, which will mean the completion of a Head and Shoulders pattern.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is trading at 0.6458 above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the lower border of the indicator Cloud near 0.6400 is expected, followed by growth to 0.6585. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the support level. The growth will be canceled in the case of a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and closing below 0.6365, which will mean further falling to 0.6285.

On Tuesday morning, the Australian dollar in the pair with the US dollar is getting stronger, the current AUDUSD quotation being 0.6440.

The May session of the Reserve bank of Australia was standard, with no surprises. The interest rate was left at 0.25% as expected – it is at its low, there is no reason to decrease it to zero.

For Australia, the moment when the Chinese economy gets more or less back to normal is very important. The trade and economic links have gone feeble, and Australia has many troubles functioning this way.
Simultaneously, a lot of questions emerge concerning the Australian employment market. If the economy does not restore soon, the labor market will get drowned in an avalanche of the unemployed.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

On H4, after a convergence, the quotations have formed a stable wave of growth. The wave overcame the previous fractal high on 61.8% Fibo but then started pulling back. After the pullback, we may expect further growth to 76.0% (1.1045) and then – to the high of 1.1147. A breakaway of the high will signal the development of the mid-term uptrend to 38.2% (1.1370). The support is at the low of 1.0727.

On H1, there is a local pullback phase after a divergence on the MACD. The quotations have gone down to 38.2% Fibo and may drop even deeper to 50.0% (1.0873) and 61.8% (1.0839). The next wave of growth will be aimed at the current local peak of 1.1019.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

On H4, the quotations have gone down to 50.0% Fibo, trying to break it away. If the market succeeds, the declining wave may continue to 61.8% (105.20) and 76.0% (103.70). Meanwhile, there is a convergence forming, suggesting a slow-down of the decline and even a reversal. The resistance is at 107.68.

On H1, after an attempt of the wave of correctional growth to reach 38.2% (107.68) Fibo, the quotations are dropping to 50.0% again. The next goal of the decline is 61.8% (105.20).

On the previous trading day, the EURUSD pair turned significantly weaker and today remains weak. The current quotation is 1.0906.

The statistics published recently showed that the Sentix investor trust index in May had fallen to -41.8 points against the forecast -25.9 points. Of course, the region is in the middle of an economic crisis, and there are few reasons for optimism in the short perspective. However, the Eurozone has done a lot to support the economy, and we will soon see the effect. By the way, today the Federal Constitutional Court (Germany) will make its judgment on the ESM program and the financial pact of the EU. There are many arguable moments in the program but for now any support measures will do.

Yesterday, the US published the statistics of the industrial orders volume in March. The index dropped by 10.3% (per month) against the previous decline by 0.1% and the forecast 9.2%. The digits look logical because even then the economic system saw the approaching influence of the pandemics.

On Tuesday, the Eurozone will publish the producer price index in March. A steep decline is expected. The US are preparing the trade balance in March and the business activity index in April.

However, the most interesting American statistics is due at the end of the week when the data on the labor market in April will be published. The digits are expected to be extremely weak, but the reality is able to scare the investors even more.

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

On H4, the pair grew, formed a Shooting star, and keeps working off the signal of the reversal pattern. We may suppose that the price will go on declining to 1.0910. Then it may bounce off the support line; the goal of growth, in this case, will be at 1.1020.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

On H4, the pair broke away the support level and is forming a flat again. Currently, the pair has formed several reversal patterns; however, we are not to expect the execution of their signals. In the present trading situation, we may suppose that the quotations will go on moving in a horizontal channel. The aim of decline is still at 105.77, while the aim of growth is at 107.90.

EURGBP, “Euro vs. Great Britain Pound”

On H4, the pair formed another Hammer, bounced off the support line, and goes on growing. Then we may expect the price to perform a small correction and proceed to the resistance area. The landmark is still at 0.8850. However, the pair may return to the support level, aiming at 0.8690.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The currency pair has broken the level of 1.0970 upwards, extending the consolidation area to 1.1000. Today, the market is pushed to the lower border of this range. We are waiting for the level of 1.0922 to be reached, followed by growth to 1. 0970 and its test from below. Then the pair may return to 1.0922. After breaking it downwards, it may further decline to 1.0875. The goal is local.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The currency pair reached the estimated goal of the decline at 1.2485. Today, the market has broken this level downwards. It may further decline to 1.2385. After this goal is reached, the pair may correct to 1.2515, testing this level from below. Then it may decline to 1.2310.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

The currency pair has corrected to 74.10. At the market opening, we are expecting a decline to 72.00, followed by growth to 73.50 and a decline to 71.30. The goal is local.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The currency pair is trading at 106.76 under the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a bearish trend. A test of the lower border of the indicator near 107.10 is expected, followed by a decline to 105.45. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The falling will be canceled in the case of a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and closing above 107.45, which will mean further growth above 108.35.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The currency pair is trading at 1.4130 above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the upper line of the indicator near 1.4065 is expected, followed by growth to 1.4355. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The growth will be canceled in the case of a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and closing under 1.3885, which will mean further declining to the area around 1.3795.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is trading at 8603 above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the indicator near 8585 is expected, followed by growth to 9805. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the ascending channel. The growth will be canceled in the case of a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and closing under 7805, which will mean further decline under 7205.The growth will be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the Triangle and closing above 9365.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after falling and reaching 23.6% fibo, XAUUSD is moving towards the high at 1747.77. If the price breaks it, the pair may continue its growth to reach the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1798.90 and 1858.60 respectively. At the same time, one should note that the rising impulse was slowed down as it was approaching the high. In this case, there is a high probability of a new descending wave with the targets at 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1634.40 and 1599.50 respectively.

On H1, after a decline and another test of 23.6% Fibo, the quotations are heading for 1747.77, but this may be just a short-time pullback after a momentum of decline.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

On H4, the last escape of the quotations from the upper border of the consolidation triangle was hardly a success. The quotations formed a strong momentum of a decline, hinting on possible extension of the correctional phase. The potential goal of the decline is 61.8% (0.9453) Fibo; after it is broken away, the decline may go on to 76.0% (0.9350).

On H1, there is a short-term pullback after a momentum of a decline to the local lows. The aim of the pullback may be at the current resistance level of 0.9672. After the correction is over, the quotations may go on declining. The next goals of the decline are in the post-correctional extension range of 138.2-161.8% (0.9512-0.9462) Fibo.

On Monday, the Australian dollar keeps stepping back in the pair with the US dollar, trading at 0.6393.

The morning statistics has shown that the number of permissions for new construction in Australia in March declined by 4% (per month) against the forecast 15% and the previous growth of 19.4% (per month).

The Australian economy felt the influence of the coronavirus pandemics as early as March, most likely due to the economic problems of China. This country has always been the key trade and economic partner of Australia, that is why everything connected to its finance and economy is so
important.

On Tuesday, the Reserve bank of Australia will have a session. The interest rate will most likely remain as it is at 0.25% per annum. The RBA commentaries will be of interest: how it will estimate the situation in the economic system and around it and how it will support the economy is the labor market reflects its weakening.

For now, the risks for the AUD are few but they may emerge if the GDP forecasts worsen.