AUDUSD consolidates after breaking below 50% midpoint now

The 61.8% retracement is rest point now and next downside target

The AUDUSD moved below the 100 hour MA, 200 hour MA and 100 day MA yesterday. That shiifted the bias more to the downside. The 50% midpoint stalled the fall at 0.69958

The 61.8% retracement is rest point now and next downside target

Today, that 50% level (was also the low from July 17 – see post from yesterday)  was broken and it opened the door for more downside wander. The 61.8% at 0.69756 was breached on a single bar, but failed. The price has been able to stay above since then. Traders will be looking for a break to continue to progression lower. Holding keeps the dip buyers in the game.  

rfxsignals July 23, 2019 No Comments

Euro begins the week calmly. Overview 23.07.2019

Euro begins the week calmly. Overview 23.07.2019

EURUSD is opening the new week of July in good balance. The current quotations are 1.1220. Today is going to be a quiet day on the exchange market. The macroeconomic calendar is empty, and Monday has all chance to remain calm. However, some news from abroad is worth considering: the world trade wars may soon take a new step, because the US are now planning to bring Vietnam under their control. I was June when the US President Donald Trump first said that Vietnam is abusing the situation, sometimes behaving worse than China. Clearly, he was speaking about its trading behaviour. After the situation with the Chinese export to the USA became complicated, Vietnam developed a robust activity and increased the volume of export to the US. The export is said to have grown to 8% GDP, which is truly a lot. Naturally, Trump does not like it. As early as May Vietnam appeared on the list of countries – currency manipulators, and now it is prone to get increased taxation on its goods. The start is the same as with China: in July the US put a tax on the Vietnamese steel as high as 400%. Such conditions are absolutely noncompetitive, so the volume of the Vietnamese steel dropped significantly. With other goods it is more or less the same. The tax for Vietnamese goods may amount to 25%, as with China, which will deteriorate the export greatly and influence the GDP of the country. For the exchange market such steps will show not just deepening, but also widening of trade wars, so that the next goal of American trade protection may become any country of the world. In such circumstances demand for safe currencies, such as the dollar and yen, usually grows

GBPUSD weekly outlook 22-07-2019

GBPUSD failed for the 2nd week in a row below 2018 lows

2018 low came in at 1.2453

The GBPUSD traded below its 2018 low at 1.2453 for the 2nd week in a row, and barring a sharp fall today, the pair will fail on that break for the 2nd week in a row.  

2018 low came in at 1.2453

Last week the low reached 1.24378. This week the low got all the way down to 1.23815 on Wednesday before bouncing  (helped by better retail sales on Thursday) and the dollar selling on the back of the William’s comments.  
With two shots at going lower and two fails, traders may tilt short/intermediate term bias more to the upside (i.e., look for a dip to buy) with stops on a break back below the 1.2453 level.
Where is support?
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the pair is approaching support at the 200 hour MA at 1.24938 level and the 100 hour MA at the 1.24715 level. 
If you recall from yesterday, the pair moved up to 1.24968 just above the 200 hour MA, retraced to the 100 hour MA (blue line) before the run higher on the William’s commnets.  IN between sits the swing low from July 4 at 1.24805. 
The pair currently trades at 1.2506. The low for the day just reached 1.2494 – just ahead of the 200 hour MA.

GBPUSD on the hourly chart

It’s Friday and new positions may not be the best idea, but into trading next week, I would look toward the 100 and 200 hour MAs to be a support level for buyers with the idea that 2 failed shots to go and extend lower (below 2018 lows at 1.2453) is enough, and that the “market” may look to explore the upside instead.  Much will depend on the support against the 100 and 200 hour MAs.  
On a move to the upside, the obvious hurdle is at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.25484. In the run higher yesterday and also today, that MA stalled the rallies.  It will take a move above to give the dip buyers some added confidence (but likely not until next week).  
Of course, the pound has a lot of hurdles on the road ahead with Brexit. The price action will reflect the good and the bad. However, from the two chances in the last two weeks, the sellers certainly had their shot and they missed.  Do the longs look to take a shot now?  Watch the support levels but respect them too. Moves below are the risk.  

rfxsignals July 1, 2019 No Comments

DAILY FREE FOREX SIGNALS FOR 01-07-2019 сигнал форекс ежедневно

GBPCHF SELL-1.24093
SL-1.24452
TP1-1.23819
TP2-1.23568

EURAUD BUY -1.62282
SL-1.61930
TP1-1.62480
TP2-1.62641

AUDCAD SELL-0.91571
SL-0.91931
TP1-0.91402
TP2-0.91244

AUDUSD SELL-0.69915
SL-0.70230
TP1-0.69715
TP2-0.69558

GBPUSD BUY-1.26567
SL-1.26215
TP1-1.26753
TP2-1.26940

EURUSD BUY -1.13551
SL-1.13186
TP1-1.13741
TP2-1.13921

USDCHF SELL-0.9824
SL-0.98616
TP1-0.97868
TP2-0.97613

NZDJPY SELL-72.528
SL-72.940
TP1-72.365
TP2-72.217

AUDNZD SELL-1.04388
SL-1.04761
TP1-1.04206
TP2-1.04028

AUDUSD waffles up and down. Price under the 200 hour MA/50% retracement.

Tries to keep bearish bias in the AUDUSD

The AUDUSD has been waffling up and down in trading today. The low to high trading range is only 20 pips on the day. The 22 day average is 41 pips.  So the range is 1/2 what is normal over the last month of trading.  The price has been trading above and below an old floor area at the 0.6956 level.  The market is unsure what to do now.

Tries to keep bearish bias in the AUDUSD

The most recent high in the NY session stalled at the 200 hour MA (green line currently at 0.6963). The price is also below the 50% retracement of the move up from the May 30 low at 0.69599. Stay below each keeps the sellers more in control/tlts the bias to the downside.  
If the sellers are able to keep the the lid on the pair (stay below 200 hour MA), the 61.8% at 0.69453, and then the 0.6935-36 area (swing highs from May 28 and May 30) will be targeted.  

Euro Year-long Trend Nearing Decision Point

The long slow bearish channel in the euro is getting close to breakout decision, notes Al Brooks.

The EURUSD currency pair has been in a bear channel for a year. Protracted bear channels often end with a sharp break below the channel and then a reversal up. There is no sign yet that the pattern of two- to three-week rallies and two- to three-week selloffs is about to end.

The EURUSD weekly chart has been forming lower highs and lows for a year. This is a bear channel and there is no sign that it is about to end. Consequently, traders continue to buy reversals up from every new low and sell reversals down from rallies to above the 20-day exponential moving average. The legs up and down have lasted two to three weeks.

EURUSD weekly Forex chart in tight bear channel

The daily chart has been in a tight trading range for a month. Every trading range has both buy and sell setups. The bears have a double top with the May 1 and May 13 highs. The bulls have a double bottom with the April 26 and May 23 low.

Because the chart is now near the 52-week low, traders are expecting a reversal up. The reversal can come from above or below the May 23 low. But, a two- to three-week reversal up is more likely that a strong break below the May low.

Possible sell climax below yearlong bear channel

When a bear channel lasts a long time, it often ends with a sell climax. There can be a strong break below the bear channel, but 75% of the time, a bear break below a bear channel reverses up within five bars.

Five bars, but on what time frame? It is the highest time frame that shows the channel. That is the weekly chart.

If traders see a strong selloff over the next few weeks that breaks strongly below the 52-week low and the bear channel, they should be ready for a reversal up. If there is a reversal up, it usually leads to a swing up. The minimum goal would be 10 bars and two legs. It could last longer and go much higher.
Since the weekly chart is in a Spike and Channel bear trend, traders will expect a reversal up to test the start of the bear channel. That is the June 14, 2018 high of 1.1851. Since that is far above, any rally would take many months to get there.

Bear channels usually evolve into trading ranges. Therefore, even if the bulls get a strong reversal up, it will probably be a bull leg in a trading range that will last a year or more.

Trading Room

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 04.06.2019 (GOLD, USDCHF)

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 04.06.2019 (GOLD, USDCHF)

03.06.2019

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair is quickly trading upwards to update the high at 1346.68. Right now, XAUUSD is getting closer to the retracements of 61.8% at 1315.80.the next upside target may be the retracement of 76.0% at 1327.35. The support is at 1266.23.

GOLD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the pair is rising steadily. The closest target is the retracement of 61.8% at 1315.80. The support level is the retracement of 38.2% at 1297.00.

GOLD_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

In case of the USDCHF, the after reaching the long-term retracement of 23.6%, USDCHF is trading close to 1.0000. The next downside target may be the retracement of 38.2% at 0.9836. At the same time, there is a convergence on MACD, which may indicate a possible pullback.

USDCHF_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the pair is starting a new short-term rising correction. The upside targets may be the retracements of 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% at 1.0002, 1.0020, and 1.0035 respectively. The local support is the low at 0.9972.

USDCHF_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBP/JPY shorts were the best trade in May 3,2019

The pair fell nearly six percent

The pair fell nearly six percent

GBP/JPY crumbled in May.
The pair fell to 136.95 from 145.26 at the open of trading on May 3. That’s the worst month for the pair since Brexit in 2016.
Looking back, the chart told the story. There was a wedge and triple bottom at 143.23 that gave way on May 8 and it was straight lower from there. Those technical levels were ones I had been highlighting ahead of the breakdown and afterwards.

FX performance

Gold comes to six-week high on increasing belief in central bank cuts

Gold up $17 today

Gold up $17 today

In a world of uncertainty, gold shines ever-brighter.
That’s certainly the case today with Trump announcing new tariffs and risk assets getting beaten up. Gold is up $17 to $1306.
The rally breaks the May high of $1303 and means the precious metal will close the month at the highs.
Gold also rallied nicely in the Nov-Dec period on a similar round of fears about trade. The upside here is considerable but it will need to coincide with a deteriorating in economic data.
The Fed funds market is pricing in a 73% chance of two Fed rate cuts this year.

rfxsignals May 30, 2019 No Comments

DAILY FREE FOREX SIGNALS FOR 30-05-2019 сигнал форекс ежедневно

EURCAD SELL-1.50296
SL-1.50665
TP1-1.50103
TP2-1.49923

EURAUD SELL-1.60532
SL-1.60930
TP1-1.60271
TP2-1.59998

USDCAD SELL-1.35131
SL-1.35484
TP1-1.34957
TP2-1.34751

GBPUSD SELL-1.26226
SL-1.26597
TP1-1.26046
TP2-1.25821

EURUSD SELL-1.11297
SL-1.11709
TP1-1.11143
TP2-1.11000

GBPCHF BUY -1.27553
SL-1.27046
TP1-1.27870
TP2-1.28251

GBPJPY BUY -138.648
SL-138.251
TP1-138.885
TP2-139.196

AUDCAD SELL-0.93551
SL-0.93908
TP1-0.93148
TP2-0.92935

GBPNZD BUY -1.93800
SL-1.93340
TP1-1.93999
TP2-1.94264
DAILY FREE FOREX SIGNALS FOR 30-05-2019 сигнал форекс ежедневно
CADJPY BUY -81.298
SL-80.818
TP1-81.524
TP2-81.750

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