rfxsignals December 14, 2019 No Comments

Forex Weekly Outlook December 16-20

After a week to remember in UK politics, Lagarde’s first decision at the helm of the ECB, the last Fed decision of the year, another chapter in the trade drama, life goes on. Apart from the reactions to previous events, final US GDP, the Bank of England’s rate decision, and a mix of data from all over the world will set the tone  Here the highlights for the upcoming week.

  1. Euro-zone PMIs: Monday, 8:15 for France, 8:30 for Germany, and 9:00 for the whole euro-zone. Markit’s forward-looking Purchasing Managers’ Indexes have to point to a recovery of sorts in November. The initial figures for December are projected to show further improvement. In France, both the manufacturing and services sectors are growing, albeit it a slow pace. The German manufacturing sector is still in the doldrums – contracting at a rapid clip, albeit off the lows. The PMI for the industrial sector stood at 44.1 points and is expected to advance to only 44.3 – below the 50-point threshold that separates extraction from contraction. In the meantime, the continent’s largest economy is seeing its services sector slowing down, with 51.7 points. The composite index for the whole continent is set tick from 50.6 to 50.9 points, indicating meager expansion. All in all, investors want to see if the recent green shoots can turn into growth, or if they are only a temporary recovery before another downturn.
  2. UK PMIs: Monday, 9:30. The preliminary PMIs for the UK have been compiled before the elections, and may not fully reflect the full reaction. Nevertheless, they may move the pound. The manufacturing sector is set to recover from 48.9 to 50.7 points, while the services sector carries expectations of falling from 49.3 to 48.9 points in December – reflecting weakness in Britain’s largest sector.
  3. UK jobs report: Tuesday, 9:30. Unemployment has stood at the historic low of 3.8% in September and a minor increase to 3.9% is on the cards now. Wages have continued advancing at a satisfactory pace of 3.6% – both including and excluding wages. The figures have no political impact at this point, but they will influence the Bank of England’s decision later in the week.
  4. German IFO Business Climate: Wednesday, 9:00. Similar to PMIs, Germany’s No. 1 think tank has been showing a minor recovery. The main indicator stood at 95 points while the Current Assessment was at 97.9 points in November. The last release of 2019 will likely show similar figures.
  5. UK inflation figures: Wednesday, 9:30. The Consumer Price Index has been slipping to lower ground, hitting a low of 1.5% yearly in October. A minor acceleration to 1.6% is on the cards. Core CPI is set to remain unchanged at 1.7%. This is further input for the BOE.
  6. New Zealand GDP: Wednesday, 21:45. The South Pacific nation, recently hit by an eruption of a volcano, has seen yearly growth at 2.1% in the second quarter. A minimal slowdown to 2% is on the cards for the third one. New Zealand releases Gross Domestic Product numbers only once per quarter, making every release more impactful.
  7. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 00:30. Australia’s labor market badly disappointed in October with a loss of 19,000 jobs. Expectations are higher this time, with an increase of 15,000 positions and an increase from 66% to 66.1 in the participation rate – keeping the jobless rate unchanged at 5.3%.
  8. Japanese rate decision: Thursday, early in the morning. The Bank of Japan has left the interest rate unchanged at -0.10% for several years, as it aims to lift inflation without hurting banks too much. It also aims to keep long-term lending costs muted – by targeting the ten-year yields. Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the BOJ, has kept the door open for more stimulus but has only tweaked the bank’s pledge to keep rates low for as much as needed. The Tokyo-based institution will likely leave rates unchanged at the last meeting of the year.
  9. UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. Two members of the Bank of England surprised markets by voting for a rate cut in November. Despite deteriorating economic conditions, the BOE will likely leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% in its last meeting of the year. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is set to end his tenure at the end of the year but may be asked to stay on for longer. The accompanying meeting minutes are of interest, as they will shed light on the voting pattern and also set the stage for policy in 2020. The latest jobs and inflation figures may be referred to in the publication.
  10. UK GDP: Friday, 9:30. The final read of Britain’s GDP growth in the third quarter is expected to confirm the 0.3% read – which showed that the UK avoided a recession. Any downgrade may weigh on the pound, especially as recent monthly GDP numbers for October have shown no growth.
  11. US GDP: Friday, 13:30. The second read of Q3 GDP surprised with an upgrade to 2.1% annualized growth – better than 1.9% originally reported. A similar figure is likely in the third and final read. Any change may move markets amid thin liquidity, as many traders will have left for their Christmas holidays.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 13.12.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

13.12.2019

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After forming a continuation pattern around 1.1111 and breaking 1.1153, EURUSD has almost reached the short-term upside target at 1.1098. Possibly, today the pair may consolidate around 1.1180 and expand this range both upwards and downwards, 1.1200 and 1.1155 respectively. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume moving upwards with the key target at 1.1236 if to the downside – start a new correction to reach 1.1111.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 1.3050 and breaking 1.3225, GBPUSD has almost reached the short-term target of the third ascending wave at 1.3488. Today, the pair may consolidate around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 1.3420, the market may start a new correction to reach 1.3333; if to the upside at 1.3511 – expand the range towards 1.3539 and then resume moving downwards with the target at 1.3200.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After reaching the downside target at 0.9808, USDCHF has formed the ascending impulse towards 0.9870; right now, it is consolidating around 0.9845. Possibly, today the pair may expand this range both downwards and upwards, 0.9820 and 0.9880 respectively. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may start another correction with the target at 0.9916; if to the downside – form a new descending structure to reach 0.9777.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has broken 109.00; right now, it is still growing towards 109.77. Today, the pair may reach 109.70 and then start a new correction towards 109.40, at least. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to reach to 109.77.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has reached the short-term upside target at 0.6916; right now, it is consolidating at the top. Possibly, the pair may fall to reach 0.6878 (at least) and then resume moving upwards with the key upside target at 0.6962.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has reached the short-term downside target at 62.75. Possibly, today the pair may consolidate near the lows. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 62.60, the market may continue trading inside the downtrend towards 62.22; if to the upside at 62.80 – start a new correction with the target at 63.25 and then resume trading inside the downtrend.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is moving downwards with the target at 1.3140. Today, the pair may reach 1.3147 and then form one more ascending structure towards 1.3200. Later, the market may resume moving downwards to reach the above-mentioned target.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has completed the ascending wave at 1486.60 along with the descending impulse at 1468.60; right now, it is consolidating around the latter level. The main scenario implies that the price may form a new descending structure towards 1458.20 and then resume moving upwards to return to 1468.60. Later, the market may start another decline with the target at 1444.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent has finished the ascending impulse at 65.15; right now, it is correcting downwards to reach 64.30. After that, the market may start a new growth with the short-term target at 65.90.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is without any particular direction. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to fall towards 7000.00 and then resume moving upwards with the target at 7600.00.

BTCUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

rfxsignals December 13, 2019 No Comments

The Pound skyrocketed to its highs. Overview for 13.12.2019

The Pound skyrocketed to its highs. Overview for 13.12.2019

13.12.2019

GBPUSD is heading towards the highs of spring of 2018 after preliminary results of the early parliamentary elections were announced.

The British Pound almost reached the highs of May 2018 against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.3410.

According to the preliminary results, the Conservative party got at least 368 out of 650 seats in the early parliamentary elections that took place yesterday. The party hasn’t seen such strong results for a very long time, while for its opponent, the British Labor Party, they are the worst over 40 years.

Now, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has to navigate all necessary documents for the Brexit through the renewed Parliament. This convocation of the Parliament is expected to be more suitable for ratifying the agreement with the European Union. In case everything goes the way as it should, the United Kingdom may exit the alliance within the specified time, before the end of January 2020.

Actually, upsurge in the Pound describes the situation perfectly. It’s amazing that Johnson didn’t cave in to the opposition put up earlier in the House of Commons.

In the short-term, investors’ attention will slowly switch to London-Brussels talks on trading conditions.  This week, it was said this week that the parties were very unlikely to have enough time for discussing everything that concerned trade relations and making a deal until the end of January. In this case, the United Kingdom may exit the European Union with a minimum set of trading arrangements. The rest of them will have to be madу off the cuff.

rfxsignals November 13, 2019 No Comments

DAILY FREE FOREX SIGNALS – 13-11-2019 | Форекс – Сообщество Трейдеров |إشارات الفوركس|외환 신호

USDCHF SELL-0.99113
SL-0.99575
TP1-0.98893
TP2-0.98670

GBPUSD SELL-1.28329
SL-1.28745
TP1-1.28118
TP2-1.27920

EURUSD SELL-1.10034
SL-1.10479
TP1-1.09856
TP2-1.09681

EURAUD BUY -1.60934
SL-1.60458
TP1-1.61115
TP2-1.61354

GBPCHF SELL-1.27185
SL-1.27678
TP1-1.26937
TP2-1.26681

AUDCAD BUY -0.90721
SL-0.90186
TP1-0.90983
TP2-0.91217

CHFJPY BUY -110.131
SL-109.742
TP1-110.385
TP2-110.584

EURCAD BUY -1.45975
SL-1.45595
TP1-1.46157
TP2-1.46357

rfxsignals November 8, 2019 No Comments

DAILY FREE FOREX SIGNALS FOR 08-11-2019 | Форекс – Сообщество Трейдеров |إشارات الفوركس|외환 신호

GBPCAD BUY -1.69111
SL-1.68680
TP1-1.69331
TP2-1.69545

EURJPY SELL-120.707
SL-121.107
TP1-120.592
TP2-120.423

USDCAD BUY -1.31921
SL-1.31528
TP1-1.32114
TP2-1.32350

AUDCAD BUY -0.90846
SL-0.90506
TP1-0.91032
TP2-0.91217

CHFJPY SELL-109.742
SL-110.104
TP1-109.552
TP2-109.355

EURNZD SELL-1.73437
SL-1.73852
TP1-1.73144
TP2-1.72786

GBPCAD BUY -1.69111
SL-1.68680
TP1-1.69331
TP2-1.69545

rfxsignals November 5, 2019 No Comments

DAILY FREE FOREX SIGNALS FOR 05-11-2019 | Форекс – Сообщество Трейдеров |إشارات الفوركس|외환 신호

GBPUSD SELL-1.28781
SL-1.29252
TP1-1.28566
TP2-1.28371

GBPAUD SELL-1.85999
SL-1.86598
TP1-1.85686
TP2-1.85413

EURAUD SELL-1.60730
SL-1.61388
TP1-1.60410
TP2-1.60126

EURJPY BUY -121.212
SL-120.736
TP1-121.441
TP2-121.621

AUDJPY SELL-75.408
SL-74.891
TP1-75.575
TP2-75.747

USDCAD SELL-1.31232
SL-1.31639
TP1-1.31086
TP2-1.30927

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 04.11.2019 (GOLD, USDCHF)

04.11.2019

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, it’s been a month since the pair started moving sideways after the convergence. XAUUSD is getting closer to the high at 1519.57 and trying to break it for the third time. If the price breaks the high, the instrument may continue growing towards 76.0% fibo at 1533.08 and then the key high at 1557.00.

GOLD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, there is a convergence on MACD while the pair is trading close to the previous high at 1517.89, which means that the price is slowing down the current growth, which may be later followed by a new short-term pullback. If the instrument breaks the above-mentioned high, it may continue growing towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1531.80 and 1536.21 respectively.

GOLD_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, another descending impulse is heading towards the fractal low at 0.9840. If USDCHF breaks this level, the instrument may continue the mid-term descending tendency towards 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 0.9801 and 0.9748 respectively.

USDCHF_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, there is a convergence on MACD, which may indicate a possible pullback. The upside correctional targets may be 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 0.9877, 0.9895, and 0.9910 respectively. the support is the low at 0.9849.

USDCHF_H1
rfxsignals November 1, 2019 No Comments

DAILY FREE FOREX SIGNALS FOR 01-11-2019 | Форекс – Сообщество Трейдеров |إشارات الفوركس|외환 신호

EURUSD BUY -1.11652
SL-1.11170
TP1-1.11886
TP2-1.12136

AUDUSD BUY -0.69085
SL-0.68635
TP1-0.69276
TP2-0.69520

USDCAD SELL-1.31463
SL-1.31873
TP1-1.31224
TP2-1.30975

AUDCAD BUY -0.90850
SL-0.90383
TP1-0.91083
TP2-0.91320

GBPJPY BUY -140.077
SL-139.478
TP1-140.328
TP2-140.563

NZDUSD BUY -0.64340
SL-0.63908
TP1-0.64548
TP2-0.64779

EURNZD SELL-1.73452
SL-1.74215
TP1-1.73195
TP2-1.72933

EURAUD BUY -1.61558
SL-1.61940
TP1-1.61345
TP2-1.61150

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 31.10.2019 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

31.10.2019

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after completing a short-term pullback, the pair continues its ascending tendency and has already broken 38.2% fibo. The next targets may be 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 0.6983 and 0.7956 respectively. At the same time, one should pay attention to the divergence on MACD, which may indicate a reverse after the instrument reaches the closest targets.

AUDUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, after finishing a quick rising impulse, AUDUSD has entered the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 0.6911 and 0.6929 respectively. in the short-term, the price4 may start a new pullback, which may later be followed by further growth towards mid-term targets. The support is at 0.6809.

AUDUSD_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCAD has corrected the previous descending wave with a quick ascending impulse. After reaching 50.0% fibo, the pair is forming a pullback. Possibly, the next rising impulse may reach 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 1.3230 and 1.3273 respectively. If the price breaks the support at 1.3042, the instrument may continue the bearish trend towards the long-term low at 1.3015.

USDCAD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the pair is forming a pullback towards 38.2% fibo after finishing a quick ascending movement.

USDCAD_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future