rfxsignals May 6, 2019 No Comments

Forget the Forex Pip, It’s All about Units!

It’s not about the pips, and certainly not about the dollars. Learning to accurately measure your success or failure in each trade is essential to survival…

Forex Pip 1

Don’t get fooled into thinking the forex pip is the building block of trade measurement; it isn’t!

You’ve no doubt heard or read the boasts of supposedly successful traders talking about how much they made yesterday, last week or last month or whatever.

When you first start out in forex trading these impressive claims have the twin effect of making you feel inferior and putting you in awe of the people making them.

If you are in this position now rest assured that you needn’t feel that way.

First off, the really successful traders never boast. They just don’t need to. They are comfortable with who they are.

Secondly, when you have a close look at the claims very few of them stand up to scrutiny.

This is almost always because of the manner in which the vaunted success is measured. All told, there are four main ways of measuring the success of any individual trade or set of trades. Let’s look at those four now.

The first measurement is the most ridiculous: it’s when a trader talks about how many dollars or euros or substitute-any-currency-you-like they have made. The claim is ridiculous for two reasons:

Because what may be a large amount of money to them may be peanuts to you, or vice versa

Because it doesn’t tell you how much of their account they put at risk in order to make those dollars. For example, if they made a thousand dollars yesterday on a trade but their risk in the trade based on where their stop loss was set amounted to five thousand dollars, that’s a very, very poor trade and nothing to be proud of. It’s even worse when you discover that they did not set a stop loss, because in that case obviously their risk was only limited by the size of their account!

The second measurement is probably the most common: Forex Pips. “I had a fantastic day yesterday, I made over three hundred pips” you’ll hear it said. But once more, we have no inkling of how much was at risk in making those three hundred pips. If it was on a single trade and the risk was one hundred pips, that’s a good trade by anybody’s standard. But if they had to risk a thousand pips in order to make those three hundred, it’s obviously a different story.

It becomes even murkier when you do know how much they risked but they are talking about a basket of trades. “I took twenty trades last week and made over three hundred pips, with an average risk of fifty pips per trade”. Now you have to do the maths: twenty trades at fifty pips risk per trade equals one thousand pips. Again, on scrutiny the profit doesn’t seem so great.

Some traders take it a step further and use the third measurement of trade success: Percentages. So a trader will talk about having made 5% on their account in a single trade. This gives perhaps a little clearer picture but has the same shortcoming as the previous methods, in that it doesn’t equate risk to reward. Once more, if they made 5% on their account by putting a total of 10% at risk it was not such a great trade after all.

This brings us to the fourth and ultimate measure of trade success: Units. When using this concept we are directly measuring Return as a fraction of Risk. Simply put, one Unit equates to one measure of risk. Let me explain.

I have a trading account of one thousand dollars. I decide never to risk more than a certain amount, let’s say 1% of that account – ten dollars – in any single trade. I call this amount risked a single Unit, or Position. So, if I make twenty trades over a given period of time, I have risked twenty units of my account:

20×10 dollars equals $200 risked, or 20 units risked. Now I can say that for every ten dollars I make in return, I have profited one unit. So if I made $500 my real profit is:

500 divided by 10 dollars equals 50 units. A good result based on the 20 units risked.

Forex Pip 2

Learn to think as a battlefield commander: how many units do you risk for the possible gain?

Using this process of measurement we know immediately how well a trader has done. If they say “I made two units on that trade” we know it has been a good trade for them, based on the fact that they have made twice the amount they risked.

Contrast this with the situation where they say I made “I made 2% on that trade”. Here we don’t know how well they did unless we know what percentage they risked on the trade.

I urge all traders to think in terms of units risked and units profited. It is the cleanest and most accurate method I have encountered of realistically measuring success in trading.

To read more about advanced trading concepts click the following link to return to Forex University

rfxsignals May 6, 2019 No Comments

The Bank for International Settlements

Often known as the Bank of International Settlements, the BIS plays a central role in international money flows…

The Bank of International Settlements is the global banker for the world’s central banks

The BIS is the global banker for the world’s central banks

According to the homepage of the Bank for International Settlements, the mission of the BIS is “to serve central banks in their pursuit of monetary and financial stability, to foster international cooperation in those areas and to act as a bank for central banks.”

Essentially the Bank for International Settlements is the central banker of all the world’s central banks. Its domain is limited to this upper echelon of the banking sector.

The BIS was created in 1930 as the international body responsible for overseeing the war reparations to be made by Germany after World War I.

Since then its role has expanded to where it is now one of the pre-eminent bodies governing international finances, along with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Broadly speaking its goals are to promote and maintain international financial stability, along with ensuring international monetary flows essential to trade and the general running of the world economy.

Rather than regurgitate here what others have done far better, I offer the following links for those who wish to take their study of the BIS a step further:

BIS Homepage

Investopedia BIS Introduction

Investopedia BIS In Detail

How can we use the Bank for International Settlements as traders? They publish reports on the world economy on a regular basis and conduct ongoing research with respect to the state of International finances. Specifically, the following publications and reports are interesting and informative and will give you a good backdrop to view the current market against:

The Bank for International Settlements building in Basel, Switzerland

The BIS building in Basel, Switzerland

Their Annual Report

Their Quarterly Review

Most importantly, the BIS publishers the results of a global central bank survey it coordinates and conducts every 3 years. The most recent survey was published in December 2010.

The survey covers the foreign exchange market and over-the-counter derivatives markets. This will give the trader an excellent macro overview of the current forex market with respect to prevailing sentiment and developing trends.

All the research above is available for public viewing on the BIS website at the following links:

BIS Reports

and

Triennual Fx Global Market Survey

Admittedly, a lot of the data is somewhat dry and detailed, but it is easy to read and glean the facts that you personally find pertinent. As a free, authoritative resource, the BIS site takes some beating. All traders at some stage in their forex trading career should familiarise themselves with the contents of this site.

There is a lot to learn in advanced trading subjects, and if you still have appetite for more click the following link to return to Forex University

rfxsignals May 6, 2019 No Comments

Forex COT Charts

The cot charts forex medium and long term traders employ give a unique insight into where the market is heading for all traders…

Cot charts and horse racing: inside information…

Forex COT Charts & Horse Racing: know who the big punters are backing to increase your own chances…

Question: if you went to a race track where you knew certain of the races were rigged in favour of the big punters, and you were given an opportunity to know which races had been set up in favour of which horses….

…. would you take advantage of this insider information or not?

Well, if you did you would likely be engaging in an illegal activity.

But what if there was another kind of race track where you were legally given a heads up on which way the big dogs were betting? It would make sense for you to it least be aware of this information, yes?

As it turns out, in the forex market you actually do have such an opportunity. It’s called the Commitments of Traders (COT) report. Released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) every Friday at 3:30 EST, the report details the positions of the major players in the markets on the preceding Tuesday. All of the major forex currencies are covered, as well as a host of commodities, gold, silver and so on.

The report splits the holdings of participants in the selected market into 3 groups: the Commercials, the Speculators, and the Small Traders (sometimes referred to as the “dumb money” for their habit of often being on the wrong side of the next major price move!)

The Commercials refers to the group of extremely large traders who are actively involved in the provision of the commodity, currency etc in the marketplace, or they have contracted to take future delivery of the underlying instrument.

The Speculators represent the group of very large traders who have no interest in the underlying commodity or instrument itself, but are only involved in trading the market in order to make a profit on the actual trading.

The Small Traders are similar to the Speculators except that their position sizes are as you would guess, much smaller than the Speculators.

The power of the COT report lies in the fact that taken together, the positions of the participants represents the overwhelming bulk of interest or trade in the associated instrument. It is therefore argued that, knowing the positions of the major players, we can deduce which way price will run next.

The most often cited example is when the commercials’ and speculators’ positions are at opposite extremes. In this situation something has to give, as both the major buyers and the major sellers are fully committed to their current position and therefore cannot profit without exiting their trades in the opposite direction. An example will help here…

The following chart is from a very cheap but excellent COT subscription service (COT futures.com, link below). Note the scale across the bottom of the chart. This refers to the weeks of offset from January 1 in the current year.

You can see an example (around the 25 weeks mark) of when the commercials and speculators were at opposite extremes on the AUDUSD. Shortly thereafter both sides reversed to the opposite extremes. This coincided with a sharp reversal in fortune for the AUDUSD as the commercials liquidated positions and the speculators went long, resulting in the AUDUSD rising in price.

Cot Charts Forex: an example depicting the AUDUSD

The cot report is powerful information, but like many things in the market it is open to interpretation. If you are going to incorporate it into your trading you would be well advised to do further research. As usual the Internet is full of conflicting and confusing information regarding forex cot charts.

Over the years I have researched the various resources. The following represent the ones that I have found to be simple to understand, cheap, and should give you all you need. They have been involved in provision of data and training for many years now. Please note that I am not in any way affiliated with these businesses, the links are provided for your information only:

Floyd Upperman & Associates

COT futures.com

Timing Charts.com

I highly commend a study of the forex cot reports to any trader. Even if you decide not to incorporate this information into your own trading, it is something that you really need to be aware of.

Another source of data that can help traders with regards to the macro view in the forex market is the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Click to go to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

rfxsignals May 6, 2019 No Comments

Forex Market Hours / Days / Years: Time and Tide Events

Grasp the concept of cyclical ebb and flow in the forex market and be on the right side of the wave every time…

Money Wave

Apologies to the Bard for the tacky image, but I think you get the idea and anyway I just couldn’t resist ?

There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life Is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, And we must take the current when it serves, Or lose our ventures.

Shakespeare, Julius Caesar Act 4, scene 3, 218–224

The forex market really does ebb and flow just like a system of great oceanic tides. It is a 24 hour market, six days per week, virtually every week of every year.

Forex market trading commences for the week in Auckland, New Zealand at around 8 AM Monday their time and closes in New York at around 4 PM EST on Friday.

And just as we discuss elsewhere on this site the concept of lower timeframe candlesticks nesting inside higher level candlesticks, and lower timeframe charts inside higher timeframe charts, so too the fluctuations of the forex market times over days, weeks, months, years and even decades can be seen to move in cycles.

Of course we can’t accurately predict the exact timing, extent and duration of these cyclical moves. But the fact that it is an inexact art should not stop us from studying it. Having a general idea of how the market breathes in and out allows the conscious trader to stand aside at times of lower probability and pursue opportunities when the probability is higher.

Classical Forex Sine Wave

Classical sine wave activity: note the different cycles within larger cycles, just like currency market hours within days, within weeks, within months, within years…

As the progression of forex market opening times and closes proceeds around the globe we get fluctuations in volatility due to liquidity blocks entering and leaving the market.

It can be thought of as resembling a sine wave.

Each day as trading progresses news and other announcements may cause another series of cyclical price spikes and retracements intraday, independent of market opens and closes.

Understanding how and when these moves peak and ebb will both enhance your opportunities for quick profits and help you avoid being whipsawed by short-term volatility.

These fluctuations, especially those caused by important news announcements, not only affect trading at the time but also can have bearing on the results of any backtesting…

For example, you may look at a new strategy that has great results in backtesting and conclude that it is worth trading. You then proceed to trade it, taking note of breaking news announcements and avoiding trades at those times. But have you done the right thing? What if the backtesting was conducted without any regard to news announcements during the period tested? In that case it’s like you bought one system but are trading another!

This talk of news announcements and their impact on trading brings us to a couple of tools that every trader should employ in their day to day trading, namely a news source and economic calendar. Click on the following link to explore this in more detail:

Forex Market News

As mentioned above, forex time cycles, and the cycles themselves nest within one another. The two most useful views of this are the Forex Market Year and the Forex Market Day. Click the following links for more details:

Forex Market Year

Forex Market Day

rfxsignals May 6, 2019 No Comments

The Forex Candlestick Chart

The Candlestick is absolutely key to understanding forex price action…

Candlestick Charts have become the norm in forex trading for the simple reason that most traders prefer them for the information they convey.You can use a simple line chart to great effect to do some things in forex trading, such as finding historic price support and resistance levels. And some people still prefer the old style bar charts:

Forex Line Chart Illustration

Line Chart

Forex Bar Chart Illustration

Bar Chart

Candlesticks are formed based on a single timeframe’s open, high, low and close values. For example, if you are looking at a chart of daily candlesticks, the candlestick previous to the current open candlestick will contain what the values for yesterday’s open, high, low and close were.The following diagram gives a quick breakdown of basic candlestick anatomy, with the parts of a candlestick labeled:

Forex Candlestick Anatomy Illustration

Candlesticks are excellent visual aids to current price action and market sentiment. Reading candlestick charts can give us the following powerful information at a glance:

Support and Resistance levels formed by the wicks at either end. These form the boundaries of how far the bulls and the bears could push price in the session just finished.

Volatility and/or Volume. This can be seen by the extent of the candle body. If the body is relatively long, it may indicate increasing interest, volatility and possible volume. If the real body is relatively short, it often indicates a lacklustre market in which neither the bulls nor the bears have gained the upper hand, and it may further indicate little volume of orders. Of course, it may also indicate a session in which price was very tightly contested, with a near match of buyers and sellers. But generally speaking, lots of interest in a currency will see an extended candle body.

The open and close tell us where the bulk of the trading likely occurred. They also represent consensus views with regards to price. Where price opened tells us how the market valued the currency at the beginning of the session; where price closed tells us what the market valued the currency at when trading ceased for that particular session. Of themselves these values may represent little. However, used in conjunction with the levels of other candlesticks, as well as indications such as pivots, Fibonacci etc, this can be potent information.

This section of AuthenticFX will teach you what candlesticks mean. It is broken down into the following topics:Forex Candlestick Glossary Chart

Forex Candlestick Glossary Chart. This is a chart of the major forex candlestick patterns that can be used in price action trading. You can click the image at the right to go to Forex Candlestick Glossary Chart

N.B. The Glossary is now available in PDF format as a Free Bonus to the course “The 7 Things You MUST Know about Forex Candlesticks!” It’s easy to print and pin above your workstation, and includes clickable links to a full explanation of each candle pattern >>>

See More Details of “The 7 Things You MUST Know about Forex Candlesticks!”

The difference between Forex candlesticks and candlesticks in other markets, e.g. Stock Markets. Click the following link to discover why Forex Candlesticks are different and how important it is when trading forex.

The most important single candlestick, and possibly the best candlestick all round: the Rejection Candlestick. Also known as the pinbar, rejection bar and hammer. Click the following link for Rejection Candlestick

Candlestick Addition. When is a candlestick like a Russian doll? All the time! Click the following link to discover Candlestick Addition

Following on from candlestick addition, the concept of using two timeframes together to trade candlesticks. Click the following link to go to Trading Candlesticks Using More Than One Timeframe

The difference between continuation patterns in forex candlesticks and reversal patterns. Click the following link to discover the difference between a forex candlestick continuation pattern and a reversal pattern

Use the candlestick body or the candlestick wick? Click the following link to discover when to use the bodies of the candlestick and when to use the wicks.

More esoteric patterns: dark cloud cover candlestick, piercing pattern, black crows candlestick charting etc. Click here to go to Dark Cloud Cover Candlesticks and others.

Doji Candles and their applications – Decisions & Indecisions! Click the following link to go to Doji Candles

Steve Nison: where candlesticks trading in the Western world began. Click the following link to find out more about Steve Nison

Completed Candlestick Patterns: why it is important to wait for candles to close before entering a trade

Probably just as important as candlesticks is understanding the issue of Forex Market Hours. Things like time of day, day of week, season of the year and other time related issues can make the difference between winning and losing. Click here to go to Forex Market Hours

rfxsignals May 6, 2019 No Comments

Forex Indicators

With forex indicators as in so many things in life “Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run, there’s still time to change the road you’re on” – Led Zeppelin

Forex Indicators: the Two Paths You Can Choose

We’ve already touched on the topic of indicators in the section on Price Action Trading. Now let’s have a look at the subject in detail. Firstly, a definition of what constitutes an indicator in trading terms.

Do a Google search on the string “what is a trading indicator?” or something similar and you will get the usual display of several million results. There will be plenty of discussion of indicators, but very few definitions.

So here goes, my definition:

A Forex Indicator is any representation of past price behaviour

in an attempt to predict some aspect of future price behaviour.

It may seem trivial, but it really is worth getting clear in your mind just exactly what it is that an indicator is supposed to do for us.

So reading through the above simple definition again, we can note that indicators attempt to predict some aspect of future price behaviour. This is where they become useful to us as traders. But the one distinction that forex newbies are generally unaware of is that indicators can be broken up in the following way: they are either lagging or predictive.

(For a discussion of this break down of the two types and how they can be used in forex trading, you can skip to the Forex Trading Indicators link below.)

As noted elsewhere on this site, I mostly restrict my own trading to Price Action Trading. This is because restricting your choice of indicators to those aligned with price action trading Keeps It Simple!

Price action traders are uninterested in offscreen, lagging indicators. Instead, they concentrate on anything that can be portrayed in the actual chart window itself that may pinpoint a price level where price is highly likely to react, or that gives real time, current indication of price trend.

All of these real-time tools I refer to as indicators.

The basic Indicators of the price action trader are:

Support/Resistance

Round Numbers

Pivot Points

Trend

Fibonacci

Bollinger Bands

I am also making available the following indicator which I have had coded for me after my own design:

Forex Polarity Indicator

The following section discusses the Types of Forex Indicator and is a general discussion including MACD, RSI etc. Lagging & Real-Time, Off & On screen:

Forex Trading Indicators

Having covered simple indicators and how they are used in forex trading, a good place to go next would be the following section, Candlestick Charts. This builds on the principles of price action trading and the most useful, real-time indicators that you can use to master forex trading.

Put these three sections together – Price Action Trading, Forex Indicators And Candlestick Charts – with your identification of Trader Type and you are well on the way to having identified what truly is the best approach for YOU to trading the forex exchange markets!

rfxsignals May 6, 2019 No Comments

Daily Forex Trading Hours -When it is Running ?

Track the forex trading hours open and close times around the globe in a market that rarely sleeps…

Forex Trading Hours: Forex Clocks As Forex Cogs

Each timezone has its own trading hours, interlinking with neighbours as they drive liquidity cycles

The forex market opens each week during the Asian time zone, beginning with Auckland, New Zealand when the banking and financial sector starts up around 8 AM (21:00 hours GMT or thereabouts).

Thereafter begins a rolling progression of forex market opening times and closes around the globe.

Next to start is the eastern seaboard of Australia comprising the major financial centres of Melbourne and Sydney. The Australian session is only just getting under way when Tokyo opens 2 hours later, followed by Singapore an hour after that.

This overlapping of market sessions often gives rise to instability and volatility. It can provide great opportunities for trading, and at the same time expose beginning forex traders to great risk.

The new forex trader is well advised to study these times as they relate to their personal trading sessions and adjust their approach accordingly.

A further complication relates to the issue of daylight saving and other seasonal adjustments. Depending on where you live, and therefore whether or not local authorities adjust for daylight saving etc, market open and close times can change by one hour up to 4 times a year. Keep an eye on these seasonal clock adjustments, not just for your own time zone but for the major financial centres such as London and New York.

Above is a representation of the four major global time zones in forex, with open time countdowns updating in real time.

Note especially how the sessions overlap, beginning with the Australasian open in Sydney, progressing through Tokyo, then to London and on to New York.

There are also smaller but quite significant open and close events centred around Central/Eastern European nations such as Russia, and later in the day as Frankfurt opens an hour before London.

The Frankfurt open is especially interesting since it can often push price in one direction only to see a complete reversal when London begins trading!

These overlapping zones represent areas of likely volatility which I think of as “forex tidal wash” areas. If you have ever stood at the mouth of a river as it enters the ocean when the tide is changing you will have observed the turbulence and the washing of one stream of energy into, through and across the other.

In the area where I grew up these tidal washes attract sharks: they like to hunt in the camouflage of the swirling turmoil which also helps to confuse their prey. Does this remind you of times you have entered the market when volatility suddenly increased? I think you can see the connection; it is a time to exercise great caution.

The Three major Tidal Washes are:

Asian Tidal Wash after quiet start in Australia: Tokyo/Singapore opens

European tidal wash after Asia ends: Frankfurt/London opens

The New York Open / London Close tidal wash

A couple of resources that you may find helpful in keeping in tune with the various timeframes as they change during the year due to daylight savings etc. are the following:

http://www.worldtimezone.com/markets24.php : WorldTime zone – Daylight Savings Markets Clock

http://www.anuko.com : Anuko World Clock is a download for Windows that replaces the regular system clock with several time zones of your choosing. Includes a template for “World Clock for a Forex Trader”, among others.

The concept of forex market trading through different time zones and levels of volatility is a good place to introduce one safeguard a trader can use for these times if they are unable to watch to their open trades: a VPS service.

Click to go to VPS service

rfxsignals May 5, 2019 1 Comment

Forex Systems and Strategies, A Subtle Difference Worth Knowing

A newcomer to foreign exchange markets could easily be confused as these two terms are often used but rarely defined. Strategies can therefore appear to mean the same as Systems.

So, what exactly is a forex Strategy as opposed to System?

I agree with Van Tharp who states that what most people see as a trading system is really just a trading strategy. That is, a set of rules and parameters covering such things as:

profit targets

stop loss

early exit triggers

stop trailing rules

percentage of account to risk per trade

etc…

In other words, the nuts and bolts of scanning the market for trades, and entering and exiting those trades.

A System encapsulates this strategy – and potentially others – within the context of a Trading Plan. Every trader should have such a plan, and inside that plan the definite rules for each strategy employed by the trader should be laid out.

For example, a Trading Plan might have a high-level structure as follows:

Forex Systems and Strategies the Difference is the Plan

A trading plan is one of the distinguishing features of a trading system as opposed to trading strategy

1) The Trader That I Am:

– Psychological Profile etc.

2) How I Trade

– Timeframe

– Attitude to News Trading

– Trade Strategy 1

– Trade Entry

– Trade Management/Stop Trailing etc.

– Trade Exit

– Trade Strategy 2

– Trade Entry

– Trade Management/Stop Trailing etc.

– Trade Exit

– etc…

3) Trade Management

– Stop Trailing etc.

4) Account Management

5) My Golden Trading Rules

etc…

We will be covering Trading Plans in detail elsewhere. They are mentioned here for the purpose of showing the difference between Forex Trading Systems and Forex Trading Strategies.

Let’s just say the two terms are generally assumed to mean the same thing when traders talk to one another. And generally that will be the situation on this site, except where it may seem more appropriate or likely to cause less confusion by using one or the other.

Having said that, I have tried to split strategies and systems into two sections, where forex strategies are just the bare bones approach to a trading play as defined above, and forex systems refers to a section of more comprehensive approaches.

I apologise if all of this appears to be nitpicking, but remember this is a business and it is important to iron out the terminology and concepts before you start risking real money.

Now let’s get on to the next step in determining your unique approach to selection of a trading methodology.

I suggest for those of you who have yet to define themselves as a trader – scalper/day trader/trend trader etc – the next section you might want to take a look at is Trader Type. Otherwise you may choose to go straight to Forex Trading Strategies or Forex Trading Systems…

rfxsignals May 5, 2019 No Comments

What I Learned After Taking Three Months Off From Trading

This is an article inspired by a member and close friend of mine. He is someone who has been trading for over a decade and who has struggled with the ups and downs of trading, like so many other traders. Here’s a little background on him: He is a family man, recently unemployed and looking to be his own boss so he can spend more time with his family and have the lifestyle he’s always wanted. After recently losing his job, he was forced to stop trading live and so he went back to demo trading only. He called me up after about three months of demo trading to tell me what he had learned.

When I spoke with him, he recounted a truly inspiring revelation that he had after taking a few months off from live trading and switching back to demo. He told me that after nearly 16 years in the market and trying to ‘figure it out’, he finally had his “Ah Ha” moment where everything he had learned from me and from his own personal experience, finally came together.

I asked him if I could use his experiences to write an article for you guys, because I know many of you are still struggling and are waiting for everything to “click” with your trading. Hopefully, the insight you are about to learn from will help you have your own “Ah Ha” moment so you can finally get on the track to profitable trading…

(The story below is his, I have paraphrased him and edited it a bit, but this is his 1st person account…)

You don’t need to trade a lot to make a lot of money.

I had always been trying to make a lot of money on small accounts. I’d chuck 1k or 2k into a trading account and think I was going to make 100k a year from that by the end of the year. LOL. Looking back, that kind of thinking really does make me laugh.

Perhaps the most impactful lesson that I learned during my three-month absence from live trading, was that I didn’t need to trade a lot to make a lot of money. I was trading a 50K demo account during my absence, and I only took two trades during that time. One trade was buying the GBPUSD which netted me about 6k and the other was buying Gold, which netted me about 25k. So, I made $31,000 in about three months (10k a month) trading only 2 times. I had no losers, just two big winners. I don’t know about you, but I am pretty happy with making $31,000 in 3 months time, for doing virtually no actual ‘work’ other than using my brain.

Now, I don’t have $50,000 real money to trade with, unfortunately. But, that is OK, because I finally realized and experienced the FACT that you don’t have to trade a lot to make a lot of money! Where have you heard this before?! Probably from the same person I did … Nial Fuller.

How many articles have you read of Nial’s where he talks about low-frequency trading or that over-trading is the death of most traders’ accounts? There’s a reason for this, it’s very, very true! You don’t realize it when you’re caught up trying to make ‘a lot of money’ on a tiny account. You get caught up over-trading and forcing trades, rather than letting trades come to you.

Trading strategy and mastering it, matters, a lot.

During my three-month demo trading odyssey, I was primarily looking to trade pull backs, something Nial teaches and strongly emphasizes in his trading course, something I’ve learned from him primarily, yet I never really put into practice quite right.

The thing about pull backs, I finally realized, is that you basically have to buy a market when it’s down and sell a market when it’s up…both are very hard to do and counter-intuitive to do in the moment. It’s easy to understand but hard to put into motion.

When a market is moving higher, you feel like you want to buy it, and vice versa when it’s moving lower. The KEY is to look at the context of the chart; is the market simply retracing higher within a downtrend? If that is the case, then you should be looking to sell on that up-swing, even though you may not feel like you want to! Sell when a market is up and buy when it’s down.

Most of the time, you should be doing nothing in the market

It’s hard to not care or think about your trades on a real account, but on a demo account, you truly just don’t think about the trades as much, and most of the time, this works to your advantage in dramatic fashion.

I literally didn’t even look at my Gold trade until I was already up $19,000 dollars on it. Had that trade been real, I probably would have already sabotaged it and been out with a tiny profit or a loss by that point.

The point is, we need to detach from the markets more, especially after we enter trades.

Set the trade up, do your due diligence, make sure it meets your criteria and trading plan or strategy, set the stop loss (at least) and possibly target, and just forget about the damn thing for a few days at least! It took me YEARS, actually DECADES to be able to do this! Don’t let this be you!

Bottom-line is; Not looking at your trades once you enter them is probably the single greatest thing you can do to make money as a trader. We are swing trading, not day-trading. Remember that!

Bankroll matters.

In a recent article of Nial Fuller’s, he discussed some things he would say to his former trading self from his current trading self, having gained over a decade and a half of experience. One of the things that hit me the most was how he learned he needed his bankroll to survive in the markets. It seems obvious on the surface, but so many of us trade as if our bankroll doesn’t matter. Then, when a good trade finally comes along, we have little or no money left to take advantage of it.

This point was driven home for me during my three months of demo trading. First off, having a 50k account to start with certainly made things easier, as far as keeping my bankroll intact. That said, I also realized that even though I had 50k to trade with, I could simply crank up the risk if I wanted to, and potentially lose a lot of money very fast. So, yes, account size has advantages, but if you don’t know how to preserve your trading capital, the size of your account is irrelevant. Therefore, Nial is always saying that if you can trade successfully on a small account you can do it on a big account too. So, don’t worry if you have a small account and can’t trade the size you want; work on the mechanics, on the process and then you will be able to use that same approach as your account grows or if you find an investor.

Don’t be in a trade just to be in a trade.

This was a lesson that really hit me after switching back to demo trading for a few months. It was apparent that much of my struggles with live trading were because I simply felt an urge to be in the market nearly all the time. It was almost like a guilty pleasure; something I knew was wrong but it felt good so I did it anyways. Of course, it felt good until I lost money, which is the inevitable outcome of most trades taken for this reason.

After my demo trading success, I realized that I only had taken a handful of trades over three months, and those trades led to large gains. So, not only was I trading far less, I also made far more money, there is indeed a connection and I believe in this case correlation does indicate causation!

Patience is what makes you money, but patience is not easy.

Being patient while trading a demo account seems to be far easier than being patient on a live account. This is typically because when you’re trading demo you simply ‘don’t care’ as much as when you’re trading live, since there’s no real money on the line. When people go from a big 50k demo account to a small real account, they feel an urge to build up that real account fast, so they can trade the big size they were on the 50k demo. But, this simply leads them to over-trade and over-leverage and blow out their accounts. For this reason, it’s probably a good idea to open your demo account with the same amount of money or close to the same as what you will trade with live.

Failure eventually became success

Finally, after many years of failing as a trader, I realized that the reasons I was failing were things I had the ability to fix. Here is how I fixed it:

I wrote down in detail, everything I was doing differently as I traded my demo account. This included how I was feeling as I analyzed the market each day, how I felt as I set up a trade, how I felt as I did nothing and let the trade play out, the actual setups I took and how I managed them, etc. This was basically a trading journal, and I suggest every trader creates one. It doesn’t have to be anything fancy, so don’t over-think it. You can just record your thoughts in a Word document or even write them in a notebook. Just make a record or journal of your trades and your thoughts and feelings each day as you interact with the market in any way, shape or form.

I stopped being in a rush to make money. My demo trading success made me realize that the underlying issue behind why I was losing on my real account and why most traders lose, is simply due to being in a rush to make money. Trading is so difficult because psychologically, the more you want and try to make money from the market, the less likely you are to do so. People do well on demo accounts because their brain and the hormones it produces lead to the type of interaction and behavior in the market that results in profits. On live accounts, it’s typically the opposite. The reason why is because on a live account, people are in rush to make money, whilst on a demo account, they are just thinking of it as a ‘game’, since there’s no money involved.

So, really, if I could sum up what I learned from my success on a demo account for 3 months, it’s to simply treat your live trading account as if it’s game, and you are playing to win the game, not to make money! Making money is simply a byproduct of playing the game well enough to win.

I could not have done any of this nor would I have had these dramatic realizations had I not started studying the trading ideas and philosophies taught by Nial Fuller on his blog and in his courses. I know that probably sounds cliché to some of you, but it’s true. The main ideas Nial teaches sound simple and effective, and they truly are, but it is our own flaws and emotional miscues that make them so hard to follow. If you are having trouble with your live account, I would suggest going back to a practice account and start studying Nial’s teachings, until you finally have your own “Ah Ha” moment.

PLEASE LEAVE A COMMENT BELOW – I WOULD LIKE TO HEAR YOUR FEEDBACK 🙂

rfxsignals May 5, 2019 No Comments

Why Traders Give Back Profits After Winning Streaks

How many times have you hit a big winning trade or a series of winners and shortly thereafter given all the profits back and probably even more? I don’t know about you, but this scenario was one I found myself in more than once early on in my trading career, so I know just how frustrating it can be.

Continue reading to find out what I discovered about why traders give back profits and how to put an end to it once and for all…

The psychology of why you are giving back profits…

Whilst there is probably a number of reasons you are giving back your trading profits again and again, there is one thing they all have in common: Recency Effect.

Recency Effect is a psychological phenomenon that describes how people are more likely to remember and act in accordance with events that happened more recently, compared to those that came before. It sounds like it’s just human nature, and it is, but as traders, we need to understand the profound implications the recency effect has on us, if we let.

When a trader focuses too heavily on his or her most recent trading results, it causes them to lose focus and perspective. In trading, it is EXTREMELY easy to become overly-influenced by our most recent trade(s), and this can cause us to do all kinds of stupid things.

Recency Effect is the root cause of why traders give back their profits again and again. The main reason it causes traders to give back profits, is by giving them a false sense of confidence about their trading abilities…

False-confidence: An enemy in disguise

When we become overly-affected by our most recent trades (recency effect), it typically manifests itself by feeling a false sense of confidence.

For example, a beginning trader might get lucky and start out doing very well, hitting a string of three straight winners, which is entirely possible even if they don’t know what they’re doing. Now, let’s say the market conditions at the time of the winners were “easy” conditions; very strongly trending, easy to quickly profit in. Next, let’s say the market conditions change suddenly but that trader just keeps trading because they are feeling very confident following the ‘easy money’ they’ve just made. A lack of education, understanding and trading skill, combined with this false-confidence cause the trader to keep trading, but now the trader loses all the money they made on their three winners.

This type of situation is very common and nearly every trader experiences it at some point. False-confidence will make you feel like you’re smarter than you are, like you have some trading ‘gift’ that ‘other people just don’t have’. Well, you probably do not have such a gift (it’s rare), and when you are feeling like you do, it’s a warning sign you’re about to lose some money to the market.

The key to overcoming Recency Effect and false-confidence, is by remembering that thinking in probabilities is the key to lasting trading success. In other words, we are trading probabilities, not certainties in the market, and every trade is unique and independent from the previous one; so, your previous trade result has no influence on your next trade’s. This is how you have to think if you want to get in the proper trading mindset. It is when you start assigning too much importance to your more recent trades that you lose sight of your trading plan and long-term trading goals and start losing money regularly.

Cold, hard, cash.

There is nothing more real than cold, hard, cash in your hands. The feel and smell is something that creates a sensory connection and as a result, an emotional and psychological one as well. This is quite a bit different than what happens when you are simply staring at digits on a computer screen.

What is my point you ask?

When we never touch our trading money, specifically the profits we make from trades, it becomes an intangible and thus insignificant thing to us. In short, we care less about it.

What easier way to give back your trading profits than if you don’t care about them? I guarantee you if you held $500 cash in your hands and another trader walked up to you and tried grabbing it from you, you would probably punch them in the face, right? But, when that same $500 is on your computer screen and you can’t see who is taking it from you, you simply shrug and feel a little upset at the loss, and maybe chuck another $500 in your account.

Do you see the problem here?

Here’s the solution: Each month, if you made money trading, even if it was $10 profit, WITHDRAWAL SOME IF IT, and go get that amount out of an ATM or from your bank. Set that cash on your trading desk or put it in a jar where you can easily get to it. Take it out once a week, play with it, smell it, whatever. Realize that it’s REAL money and that you really don’t want to lose it! Now, trade in-line with that feeling. In other words, trade defensively, in order to preserve your trading capital, because THAT is how you survive and eventually thrive in the world of trading.

Conclusion

Unnecessarily giving back trading profits is probably the most frustrating part of trading and If allowed to spiral out of control, can trigger an avalanche of trading mistakes that eventually lead you to blowing out your account.

By sharing these insights it is my hope that you avoid a situation where you have grown your trading account and then proceed to lose all your profits. The mental aspect of this event can do long term damage to a traders confidence. It can be hard to recover both mentally and financially from such an event, so it’s very important traders are prepared.

After working with my students over the past decade the most common trait that I see bring down a trader is ‘over confidence’ after they experience a winning period. I encourage people to remain humble and treat each trade and each day the same as they did all those before. There is no room for egos in the market, nor is there any room for hot headed traders who feel the need to prove the market wrong, usually trading erratically to claw back losses or stubbornly holding losing positions.

Helping traders understand what problems they will run into and offering them concrete solutions on how to deal with them is something I cover in my professional trading course.

I WOULD LOVE TO HEAR YOUR COMMENTS & STORIES BELOW 🙂