USDJPY continues trading sideways; market players can’t decide on their attitude towards “safe haven” assets.

The Japanese Yen remains within the sideways channel against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 104.00.

Investors haven’t yet decided on their attitude towards “safe haven” assets. One day they need the Yen to avoid risks, the next day their sentiment gets better and the Yen starts correcting.

The revised report on the Industrial Production in Japan showed -0.5% m/m in November against both previous and expected readings being at zero. This is the first decline over the last 6 months. The components of the report show that the largest decreases came from motor vehicles (-4.5% vs. 6.8% the month before), chemicals (-4.0% vs -0.1%), business-oriented machinery (-3.3% vs 4.0%), and transport equipment (-3.1% vs 4.8%).

On YoY, the indicator showed -3.9%, while the Capacity Utilization lost 2.9% m/m

It’s quite understandable why industrial companies do not increase production – they are not sure of the final demand. The Japanese industry is export-oriented and the coronavirus pandemic makes export prospects rather unclear and dim.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the correctional downtrend has reached 38.2% fibo but right now, EURUSD is about to start a new pullback. After the pullback, the asset may resume falling to reach 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 1.1976 and 1.1888 respectively. However, if this pullback transforms into a new rising wave, the instrument may break the high at 1.2350 and then continue growing towards the long-term fractal high at 1.2555.

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current correctional uptrend after a convergence on MACD. The closest upside target is 23.6% fibo at 1.2124, a breakout of which may lead to a further growth towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1.2167 and 1.2202 respectively. If EURUSD breaks the low at 1.2054, the asset may complete the pullback and resume trading downwards.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair is trying to move upwards after a correctional decline. The upside target may be the mid-term 23.6% fibo at 104.74, a breakout of which will lead to a further growth towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 106.07 and 107.15 respectively. On the other hand, if the asset breaks the low at 102.59, the instrument may continue falling to reach the fractal low at 101.18.

In the H1 chart, a divergence on MACD made the pair start a new pullback, which has already reached 38.2% fibo. One should note that on its way to the mid-term 23.6% fibo at 104.74, the asset must break the local high at 104.40. However, if the market rebound from the high, the next descending wave may be heading towards 50.0% fibo at 103.50.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After forming another consolidation range around 1.2111 and breaking it to the downside, EURUSD is expected to continue falling to reach 1.2050. Later, the market may start a new growth to break 1.2130 and then continue trading upwards with the first target at 1.2230.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After forming a new consolidation range above 1.3616 and breaking it to the downside, GBPUSD is expected to fall and reach 1.3540. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to return to 1.3616 and then start a new decline with the target at 1.3523.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still consolidating around 73.73. Possibly, the pair may form one more ascending structure to reach 74.00 and then resume moving within the downtrend with the short-term target at 72.23.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After rebounding from 103.91, USDJPY is falling towards 103.44 and may later grow to break 104.00. After that, the instrument may continue trading upwards with the target at 104.60.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has finished the ascending structure at 0.8923; right now, it is still consolidating around this level. Possibly, the pair may expand the range up to 0.8937 and then form a new descending structure with the target at 0.8844.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending wave at 0.7660, AUDUSD is expected to correct towards 0.7760. Later, the market may return to 0.7660 to break it to the downside and then continue trading downwards with the target at 0.7530.

BRENT

After finishing the correction at 54.60, Brent is expected to consolidate around this level. If later the price breaks the range to the upside, the market may start a new growth to break. After that, the instrument may continue trading upwards with the target at 58.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After forming another consolidation range above 1834.00 and breaking t to the downside, Gold has reached 1805.80; right now, it is growing to return to 1834.00 and test it from below. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure with the target at 1790.00.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave at 34000.00, BTCUSD is expected to correct towards 37000.00 and may later start a decline new growth to reach 35000.00, thus forming a new consolidation range around 37000.00. If the price breaks the range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 30000.00; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 40500.00.

S&P 500

The S&P index is still falling to reach 3737.2 and may later correct towards 3783.8. After that, the instrument may resume trading downwards to break 3730.0 and then continue falling with the target at 3660.6.

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, after breaking the 200-day Moving Average to the downside, EURUSD is no longer consolidating. In this case, the price is expected to continue falling towards the closest support at 2/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may continue trading upwards to reach the resistance at 4/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue its decline towards 2/8 from the H4 chart.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, after rebounding from 8/8, GBPUSD is expected to fall towards the support at 5/8. Another signal in favor of this idea will be a breakout of 6/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 7/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may recover and reach 8/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the price has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue trading downwards.

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the descending tendency continues. Right now, after forming several reversal patterns, such as Hammer, close to the support level, EURUSD may reverse in the form of another rising impulse. The upside target may be at 1.2145. After that, the pair may resume trading downwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may start a new decline to reach 1.2010 without reversing and correcting.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after rebounding from the channel’s upside border and forming a Doji reversal pattern, the pair is still trading sideways. The target of the reversal pattern materialization is the channel’s upside border at 104.15. After testing this level, USDJPY may resume trading downwards to reach the next support area at 103.00.

EURGBP, “Euro vs. Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming several reversal patterns, such as Hammer, not far from the support level, EURGBP may reverse and start another pullback. In this case, the upside target may be at 0.8980. However, judging by previous movements, the pair may yet continue its decline to reach 0.8840 without reversing and correcting.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.2067; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.2115 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1940. Another signal in favor of further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.2160. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.2245.

BRENT

Brent is trading at 54.57; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 53.55 and then resume moving upwards to reach 59.15. Another signal in favor of further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 53.05. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 52.05. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the descending channel’s upside border and fix above 55.85.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7683; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.7695 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.7525. Another signal in favor of further downtrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7765. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7855. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the support area and fix below 0.7635, thus indicating the completion of a Double Top reversal pattern.

EURUSD continues falling amid European lockdowns and expectations of a new stimulus package in the USD.

Early in another January week, the major currency remains weak. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2070.

The statistics published by the USA last Friday were rather mixed but market players are not taking heart and still hoping for the best. The US Retail Sales dropped by 0.7% m/m in December after being -1.4% m/m in November and against the expected reading of zero. The Core Retail Sales lost 1.4% m/m after reducing by 1.3% m/m the month before and against market expectations of -0.1% m/m. These declines mean that consumers are very cautious about the future economic outlook and don’t want to spend much money.

On the other hand, the Industrial Production in the USA added 1.6% m/m in December after expanding by 0.5% m/m in the previous month and against the expected growth by 0.5% m/m. The Capacity Utilization Rate rose from 73.4% to 74.5% over the same period.

A preliminary report on the Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan was an unpleasant surprise as it dropped to 79.2 points in January after being 80.7 points in December and against the expected reading of 79.5 points. It might not be very bad or scary for the beginning of the year but let’s wait and see what will happen next.

The key highlight of this week is the swearing-in of newly-elected US president Joseph Biden, of course. In his official comments as the country’s next President, Biden might talk about the stimulus package to be implemented in the nearest future – this is one of the reasons that provide the “greenback” with so much support these days.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, a divergence on MACD made the pair return to 23.6% fibo but after updating the low the pair started a new pullback. After finishing the short-term correction, the instrument may start another descending impulse to reach the previous low at 1764.36, a breakout of which will lead to further long-term downtrend towards 38.2% at 1725.37. However, one shouldn’t exclude a possibility that the pullback may transform into a new wave to the upside to reach 76.0% fibo at 2000.00.

As we can see in the H1 chart, the correctional uptrend has reached 23.6% fibo and may later continue towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1862.00 and 1880.55 respectively. A breakout of the local low at 1801.79 will result in further downtrend to reach the key low at 1764.36.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after a convergence on MACD, USDCHF has tested the upside border of the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 0.8886 and 0.8816 respectively. this growth should be considered as the continuation of the mid-term pullback. The key correctional target is the resistance at 0.8999.

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the correctional trend. The asset has reached 50.0% fibo and, after breaking it, may continue moving towards 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 0.8965 and 0.9012 respectively. A breakout of the support at 0.8757 will complete this correction and resume the downtrend.

EURUSD continues retreating as the “greenback” is getting stronger.

The major currency pair is still trading downwards on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2140.

Global financial markets remain positive amid statements of President-elect Joseph Biden about his intentions to allocate trillions to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.  Biden is scheduled to take over office as early as January 20th. He gets along with the democrats that control both the House of Representatives and the Senate and is not planning to quarrel with them in this matter. Bulls like it.

Investors are usually nervous when it comes to stimulus measures because they may boost inflation and have a negative influence on the USD. However, right now the 10-year bond profitability is on the front burner and it helps the “greenback” to keep afloat.

The statistics published earlier showed that the Sentix Investor Confidence added 1.3% in January after losing 2.7% in December and against the expected reading of +2.0%. However, the actual number is pretty good despite being worse than expected.

There won’t be many interesting reports from the USA and Europe today, that’s why the market is expected to drift along.