Month: May 2021

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD is still consolidating a divergence on MACD and, judging by the fact that the lows are slowly climbing down, may soon break this consolidation range to the downside. And if the first descending correctional wave earlier reached 50.0% fibo, then the next one may head towards 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 0.7669 and 0.7618 respectively, as well as the low at 0.7532. However, one shouldn’t exclude a possibility of a further uptrend to reach the high at 0.7891.

The H1 chart of UADUSD shows a more detailed structure of the current consolidation. After growing and reaching 61.8% fibo, the pair is moving between the low at 0.7688 and 50.0% fibo. The next rising wave may head towards 76.0% fibo at 0.7842, a breakout of which, in its turn, may lead to a further uptrend to reach the high 0.7891 and the long-term 76.0% fibo at 0.7893. The most probable scenario for the nearest future implies a decline towards the low and 61.8% fibo at 0.7688 and 0.7669 respectively.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

In the H4 chart, the pair is still testing the fractal at 1.2061. At the same time, there is a convergence on MACD, which made the price correct upwards and reach 23.6% but failed twice. After finally breaking this level, the asset may continue the correction towards 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.2258, 1.2334, and 1.2410 respectively. The support is the low at 1.2013.

As we can see in the H1 chart, USDCAD is moving sideways. So far, the price is stuck between the low and 23.6% fibo at 1.2013 and 1.2164 respectively.

EURUSD is moving downwards; the statistics help the “greenback” to recover.

The major currency pair continues falling on Friday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2176.

The statistics on the labor market published yesterday supported the American currency pretty much. The weekly report on the Unemployment Claims showed 406K after being 444K the week before and against the expected reading of 427K.

The second estimate of the US GDP in the first quarter of 2021 showed no changes relative to the first estimate as it remained at 6.4% q/q, although it was expected to show 6.5% q/q. The report is rather neutral and investors paid no attention.

The Durable Goods Orders dropped 1.3% m/m in April after adding 0.8% m/m in the previous month and against the same expected reading. The Core Durable Goods Orders expanded by 1.0% m/m after adding 1.9% m/m over the same period of time. The latter indicator is extremely volatile, that’s why any significant changes in it are not considered critical.

The United States Secretary of the Treasury Janette Yellen believes that annual inflation in the USA will be quite high until the end of the year. She thinks that the recent surge in inflation was temporary but not systematic and expects the indicator to grow slowly for the next couple of months.

We remind you that inflation was 4.2% in April the highest reading since 2008.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 1.2262 and finishing the descending structure at 1.2200, EURUSD is forming a new consolidation range below the latter level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure to reach 1.2230; if to the downside – resume trading downwards with the target at 1.2131.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending wave at 1.4170, GBPUSD is expected to consolidate around it. Possibly, today the pair may break the range to the downside and resume falling with the short-term target at 1.4042.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still consolidating around 73.70. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may start another correction to reach 74.70; if to the downside – resume trading downwards with the target at 72.22.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After finishing the ascending impulse at 109.04, USDJPY is consolidating around it. Possibly, the pair may break the range to the upside and form one more ascending structure with the short-term target at 109.38. Later, the market may start a new correction to return to 109.04.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After completing the ascending wave at 0.8975, USDCHF is forming a new consolidation range around this level. Possibly, today the pair may break the range to the upside and resume trading upwards with the target at 0.9020. After that, the instrument may start another correction to return to 0.8975.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has finished the descending wave at 0.7723. Today, the pair may correct to reach 0.7759 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 0.7669.

BRENT

Brent is consolidating below 68.88. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 72.00 or even reach 74.00; if to the downside – start a new correction towards 66.68.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending impulse at 1897.70, Gold is consolidating around this level. Possibly, the metal may break the range to the downside and resume falling towards 1883.21. After that, the instrument may correct to return to 1897.72.

S&P 500

The S&P index is still consolidating around 4141.0 without any particular direction. Today, the asset may expand the range up to 4230.1 and then resume trading downwards to reach the downside border of the range at 4080.4. After breaking it, the instrument may continue falling with the target at 3944.4.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCH is trading below the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break 3/8 and then continue falling to reach the support at 1/8. Still, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 4/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may grow towards the resistance at 5/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue the descending tendency.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is trading above the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating an ascending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break the resistance at 5/8 and continue growing to reach 6/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 4/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may reverse and correct towards 3/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue moving upwards.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the uptrend continues. After testing the support area, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, including Doji and Hammer. At the moment, EURUSD may reverse and start a new growth towards the resistance level. In this case, the upside target may be at 1.2295. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 1.2155 first and then resume growing.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed several reversal patterns, such as Hammer and Harami, not far from the support area. At the moment, the asset is reversing. In this case, the upside target is the resistance level at 109.70. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may start a new pullback towards 108.85 before resuming its ascending tendency.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming several reversal patterns, such as Shooting Star, close to the resistance area, EURGBP may reverse and fall to reach the support level. In this case, the downside target may be at 0.8610. Later, the market may break this level and continue falling. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may correct to reach 0.8565 first and then resume trading downwards.

BRENT

Brent is trading at 68.37; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 67.45 and then resume moving upwards to reach 71.25. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 66.05. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 64.25.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7746; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.7760 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.7640. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the upside border of a Triangle pattern. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7855. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7945. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the support level and fix below 0.7695, thus completing the Triangle pattern.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.2119; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.2105 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.2255. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the upside border of the Triangle pattern. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.2025. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.1935.

Brent

The H4 chart shows that after falling and reaching 50.0% fibo, Brent is trading to break the local high at 69.97 and then reach the key one at 71.07. However, as long as the high isn’t broken, there is a possibility of a reversal and a new decline towards 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 64.09 and 62.75 respectively, and then the low at 60.46, a breakout of which may lead to a further mid-term downtrend to reach 23.6% fibo at 58.00.

As we can see in the H1 chart, the asset is about to start a new correction after a local divergence on MACD. At the same time, one should note that the previous rising impulse has reached 76.0% fibo. In this case, the market is more likely expected to continue growing to break the highs at 69.97 and 71.07, and then reach the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 72.05 and 73.33 respectively. The local support is the low at 64.50.

Dow Jones

As we can see in the H4 chart, Dow Jones is correcting to the upside after a divergence on MACD and, after breaking 61.8% fibo, has failed to reach 76.0% fibo at 34669.0. In this case, the asset may start a new decline soon towards the low at 33295.0, and then mid-term 23.6% and 38.2% fibo at 32970.0 and 31651.0 respectively.

The H1 chart shows potential downside targets after a local divergence on MACD. By now, the index has already reached 23.6% fibo but may resume growing towards the local high at 34535.0 or even break it. However, if the current decline continues, it may reach 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 34060.0, 33915.0, 33770.0, and 33593.0 respectively. Still, the key downside target is the local support at 33295.0.

After falling pretty much yesterday, EURUSD is consolidating on Thursday.

The major currency pair is having a really volatile time; it was plunging yesterday but managed to reach stability and is currently looking quite neutral. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2187.

There were no important statistics yesterday but the USD recovered thanks to the US 10-year bond yield and the neutral tone on financial markets.

Today, market players will focus their attention on the USA: in the evening, the country is scheduled to publish the second estimate of its GDP. Revised market expectations imply that the indicator might show 6.5% q/q against the first estimate of 6.4% q/q. the stronger the number, the better for the “greenback”.

Also, there will be April reports on the Durable Goods Orders and the Core Durable Goods Orders, which are both expected to show 0.8% m/m after being 0.8% m/m and 1.9% m/m respectively in March.

Moreover, the USA is planning to report on the Pending Home Sales in April but investors aren’t likely to pay much attention to it.

The USD remains highly volatile and extremely sensitive to external influence, that’s why these “mood swings” may continue.