Month: May 2021

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending wave at 1.2222, EURUSD is consolidating around this level. Possibly, today the pair may form one more ascending structure to reach 1.2242 and then start a new correction with the target at 1.2150.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After reaching the predicted upside target at 1.4200, GBPUSD is forming a new consolidation range there. Possibly, the pair may fall towards 1.4170 and then start a new growth to return to 1.4200. Later, the market may break the range to the downside and correct with the target at 1.4100.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still consolidating around 73.83; it has expanded the rage down to 73.65. Today, the pair may return to 73.83 and test it from below. After that, the instrument may resume trading within the downtrend with the short-term target at 73.00.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After reaching 108.83, USDJPY continues falling; right now, it is forming a new consolidation range above the above-mentioned level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure to break 109.30 and then continue trading within the uptrend with the short-term target at 110.10.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After finishing the descending wave at 0.8971, USDCHF is consolidating above this level. Possibly, the pair may break the range to the upside and reach 0.9030. After that, the instrument may break this level as well and continue trading upwards with the target at 0.9095.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is growing towards 0.7820 and may later start another decline to reach 0.7743, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure to reach 0.7900; if to the downside – resume falling with the target at 0.7611.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

In the H4 chart, after breaking 3/8, USDJPY is trading below the consolidation range. In this case, the price is expected to test 2/8, break it, and then continue falling to reach the support at 1/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may grow towards the resistance at 4/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue the descending tendency.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCAD is trading below the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to rebound from 3/8 and then resume falling towards the closest support at 2/8. Still, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may continue growing to reach the resistance at 4/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the uptrend continues. After testing the support area, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, including Hammer and Inverted Hammer. At the moment, EURUSD may reverse and start a new growth towards the resistance level. In this case, the upside target may be at 1.2285. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 1.2165 and then resume growing.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed several reversal patterns, such as Shooting Star, not far from the resistance area during the pullback. At the moment, the asset is reversing and correcting. In this case, the downside target is the channel’s downside border at 108.70. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may grow towards 109.65 without testing the support level.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming several reversal patterns, such as Doji and Inverted Hammer, while trading close to the channel’s downside border, EURGBP may reverse and grow to reach the resistance area. In this case, the upside target may be at 0.8645. Later, the market may rebound from the level and resume falling. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may fall to reach 0.8565 without testing the resistance area.

CADCHF, “Canadian Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

CADCHF is trading at 0.7439; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.7425 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.7335. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be the formation of a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7485. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7575. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the rising channel’s downside border and fix below 0.7420.

EURCHF, “Euro vs Swiss Franc”

EURCHF is trading at 1.0984; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.0975 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.1050. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be the formation of a Double Bottom reversal pattern – as we can see, the asset has tested the support area at 1.0930 twice. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.0940. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.0855. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the descending channel’s upside border and fix above 1.1005.

NZDCAD, “New Zealand Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

NZDCAD is trading at 0.8720; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.8735 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.8585. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the bearish channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.8780. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.8890.

EURUSD may continue growing as long as investors are interested in risky assets.

The major currency pair continues rising in the middle of the week. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2215.

Growing risk appetite helps the Euro to continue growing while the USD is under the pressure of the fact that the US Federal Reserve may stick to its current monetary policy for a long time no matter what financial markets want.

The American bond yield stopped increasing and that’s another factor that pushed the “greenback” earlier.

It’s now quite clear that the American regulator is going to support the country’s economy as long as it has to. For the USD, it’s a bearish signal.

Today, the regulator is scheduled to publish the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which will be looked through for hints at any possible revisions to the Fed’s monetary policy or economic outlook. However, market players are very unlikely to find anything. In fact, the document is already out-of-date as the Fed already told several times that it was not going to wind up stimulation.

Later in the afternoon, investors should pay attention to final reports on the CPI and Core CPI. The preliminary CPI report showed 1.6% y/y, which is not expected to change. The Core Consumer Price Index was 0.8% y/y in March and it will be better if the indicator doesn’t fall. In addition to that, the European Central Bank will publish its Financial Stability Review, which may contain the regulator’s estimates of the key economic parameters.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair continues growing towards the high at 1.4241. At the same time, despite a stable uptrend, there is a divergence on MACD, which may indicate a possible pullback after GBPUSD reaches its target level. A breakout of the local high at 1.4241 will lead to a further uptrend to reach the long-term high at 1.4376. An alternative scenario implies that the price may rebound from the high due to a divergence and resume falling to reach 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.3643, 1.3459, and 1.3273 respectively.

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current growth and a divergence on MACD, as well as potential correctional targets, which are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 1.4106, 1.4022, 1.3955, 1.3887, and 1.3806 respectively.

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

The H4 chart shows possible correctional targets after a divergence on MACD – 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 133.74, 131.45, 129.57, and 127.69 respectively.

USDJPY intends to keep its positive momentum due to the USD weakness.

The Japanese Yen is strengthening against the USD despite some weak statistics. The current quote for the instrument is 109.19.

The numbers published in the morning showed that the Japanese GDP, according to the preliminary data, was -1.3% q/q in the first quarter of 2021 after being 2.8% q/q the quarter before and against the expected reading of -1.2% q/q. On YoY, it’s much worse – the indicator was -5.1% against the expected reading of -4.6%.

However, one should remember that early in the year the Japanese government declared a state of emergency for the entire 1st quarter, that’s why the country’s population was rather restricted in visiting restaurants and cafes in the evenings and leaving prefectures. To prevent the spread of disease, people were recommended to work from home and avoid unnecessary contacts. Taken together, these measures significantly decreased consumer spending, which already was rather restrained.

Apart from social restrictions, a reduction in spending was also caused by lower perks paid in winter, which turned out to be the smallest since 2009.

The components of the report show that the Private Consumption was -1.4% q/q, while spending in cafes and restaurants dropped 2.6%. q/q. Household spending on durable goods lost 3.0%.

As a rule, the Yen barely responds to the statistics but the GDP report is one of the few that may force it to reach in some way. So far, the weakness of the American currency is more important for market players than disappointing Japanese statistics.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending wave at 1.2147, EURUSD is consolidating around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure to reach 1.2228 or even 1.2242; if to the downside – resume trading within the downtrend with the target at 1.2040.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending structure at 1.4109 and then forming a new consolidation range there, GBPUSD has broken it to the upside and is expected to start a new growth to reach 1.4180. Later, the market may correct towards 1.4110 and then resume growing with the target at 1.4200.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still consolidating around 73.83. Today, the pair may break the range to the downside and continue trading within the downtrend with the short-term target at 73.00.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After completing the correction at 109.06, USDJPY is expected to form a new consolidation range above this level. Later, the market may resume trading upwards with the short-term target at 110.10.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After finishing the descending wave at 0.9031, USDCHF is consolidating below this level. Possibly, the pair may break the range to the downside and reach 0.8971. After that, the instrument may grow to break 0.9030 and continue trading upwards with the target at 0.9095.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is growing towards 0.7806 and may later start another decline to reach 0.7743, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure to reach 0.7900; if to the downside – resume falling with the target at 0.7611.

BRENT

After finishing the ascending wave at 69.45, Brent is forming a new consolidation range below this level. Possibly, the asset may correct to reach 68.00 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 71.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending wave at 1870.00, Gold is consolidating around this level. Possibly, today the metal may expand the range up to 1877.44. Later, the market may correct towards 1844.00 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 1900.00.

S&P 500

The S&P index is consolidating around 4136.0 and may later start another growth to reach 4233.2. After that, the instrument may resume trading downwards to break 4047.0 and then continue falling with the short-term target at 3930.8.