Month: July 2021

BRENT

In the H4 chart, after breaking the 200-day Moving Average, Brent is trading above it, thus indicating an ascending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to continue growing towards the resistance at 8/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the asset breaks 6/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may move downwards and reach the support at 5/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue its growth.

S&P 500

In the H4 chart, the S&P Index is trading above the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating an ascending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to continue growing towards the resistance at +1/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the asset breaks 8/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may fall to reach the support at 7/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue trading upwards.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is still trading upwards. After forming several reversal patterns, such as Inverted Hammer, not from the support level, XAUUSD may reverse and start a new growth to reach the resistance area at 1830.00. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may correct towards 1795.00 before resuming its ascending tendency.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is testing the channel’s upside border. By now, NZDUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Harami, close to the resistance level. At the moment, the asset may reverse and resume falling. In this case, the downside target is the support area at 0.6900. After testing this level, the asset may break it and continue moving downwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may correct towards 0.7020 before resuming its decline.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after finishing the correction, the asset is trading within the downtrend. By now, GBPUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Harami, not far from the resistance area. At the moment, the pair may reverse and start a new decline towards the support level. In this case, the downside target may be at 1.3640. After testing this level, the market may break it and continue falling. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may grow towards the resistance area at 1.3800 before resuming its descending tendency.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1770; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.1795 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1665. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the resistance level. However, the bearish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1850. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1945. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the support level and fix below 1.1755.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7371; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.7405 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.7195. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7455. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7545.

EURAUD, “Euro vs Australian Dollar”

EURAUD is trading at 1.5967; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.5855 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.6255. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.5805. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.5705. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the descending channel’s upside border and fix above 1.6030.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, after breaking 61.8% fibo at 0.7379, the downtrend has failed to reach 76.0% fibo at 0.7236. At the same time, we can see divergence on MACD, which may force the asset to start a pullback to the upside. However, this ascending movement is not expected to reach the high at 0.8007. In the future, this pullback may be followed by another descending wave to reach the fractal support at 0.6991.

The H1 chart of AUDUSD shows potential correctional targets after convergence on MACD, which are 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 0.7431, 0.7519, and 0.7590 respectively. A breakout of the low at 0.7289 will result in a further downtrend.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, after finishing the first ascending wave at 23.6% fibo, USDCAD is correcting and may later resume its mid-term uptrend towards 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 1.3024, 1.3338, 1.3648, and 1.4028 respectively. The key support remains at the low at 1.2007.

The H4 chart shows a descending correction after divergence on MACD, which has already broken 23.6% fibo and may later continue towards 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 1.2501, 1.2406, 1.3212, and 1.21999 respectively. The local resistance is at 1.2807.

EURUSD continues analysing the ECB meeting results and the demand for “safe haven” assets.

The major currency pair is falling at the end of another trading week. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1777.

During its July meeting that was over yesterday, the European Central Bank left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at zero and confirmed its intentions to pursue the ultra-soft monetary policy for a long period of time. the ECB Governor Christine Lagarde said that a new coronavirus wave might threaten the economic recovery procedure in Europe despite the regulator’s balanced approach to building economic outlooks.

Many global Central Banks are considering a possibility to scale down their stimulus programs but the ECB is not one of them. In the long-term, this factor may pressure the European currency pretty much.

In the comments after the meeting, the regulator said that the Euro Area economy recovered in the second quarter of 2021 and was feeling quite well after social restrictions were removed. The ECB’s expectations about industrial production are positive despite some issues with the delivery of parts and components. The delta strain of the COVIDS-19 may slow down the services industry recovery, it’s still a huge risk.

According to the ECB, the economic activity will return to its pre-crisis levels in the first quarter of 2022. However, it will require a lot of time and effort to eliminate the effects of the pandemic.

In June, inflation was 1.9% and the ECB is expecting it to continue growing in the coming months. The indicator may drop in 2022, after local factors, such as an upsurge in energy prices, disappear.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD has reached the “oversold area”. In this case, the price is expected to rebound from 0/8 and then correct upwards to reach the resistance at 2/8. However, this scenario may be canceled if the price breaks 0/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may reverse and fall towards the support at -2/8.

In the M15 chart, the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator is pretty far away from the price, that’s why the pair may resume the ascending tendency only after rebounding from 0/8 from the H4 chart.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, NZDUSD is trading below the 200-day Moving Average to indicate a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break 1/8 and then continue falling to reach the support at 0/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 2/8 to the upside. In this case, the instrument may grow towards the resistance at 3/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue its decline.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is still trading upwards. After forming several reversal patterns, such as Engulfing, not from the support level, XAUUSD may reverse and start a new growth to reach the resistance area at 1850.00. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may correct towards 1800.00 before resuming its ascending tendency.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the descending impulse continues. By now, NZDUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Harami and Engulfing, close to the resistance level. At the moment, the asset is reversing. In this case, the downside target is the support area at 0.6845. After testing this level, the asset may break it and continue moving downwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may correct towards 0.6980 before resuming its decline.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is still trading within the downtrend. By now, GBPUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Hammer, not far from the support area. At the moment, the pair may reverse and start a new correction towards the resistance level. In this case, the upside target may be at 1.3777. After testing this level, the market may rebound from it and resume falling. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may continue falling towards the support area at 1.3610 without any significant corrections.

EURUSD continues falling slowly as the markets remain unstable.

The major currency pair is falling deeper. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1787.

The demand for “safe haven” assets, including the USD, is coming in full force at the time of the global market disbalance and massive escape from risks by investors.

The key reason for concerns right now is the delta variant of the COVID-19, which fuels an alarming rise in new cases all around the world. The number of new cases in the USA increased by 70% over a week, while the death rate expanded by 26%. The outbreaks have been observed in areas with small numbers of the vaccinated population and this fact only makes things worse.

It has been observed that the delta variant of the COVID-19 has a surge in deaths, which means that social restrictions that were removed a not long time ago may return pretty soon. Of course, it’s not good news for capital markets.

Today, the USA is starting to publish some interesting statistics. For example, reports on the Building Permits and the Housing Starts for June, which are both expected to improve a bit.

In general, there won’t be a lot of numbers this week that ay significantly influences the behaviour of major currencies, that’s why investors’ attention will be kept on fundamental factors.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is trading at 1.3656; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.3710 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.3450. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.3905. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.4005. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the bearish channel’s downside border and fix below 1.3565.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7317; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.7335 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.7205. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s downside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7515. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7605.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1782; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.1810 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1675. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1855. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1965. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the support level and fix below 1.1765 – as we can see, after three tests of this area, bears still failed to break it.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is slowly falling towards the fractal low at 1.1704, a breakout of which may lead to a further downtrend to reach 50.0% fibo at 1.1695. The overall picture shows a series of updates of lows along with slight pullbacks. Coupled together with convergence on MACD, this factor implies a possible correction to the upside soon.

The H1 chart shows potential correctional targets after convergence. At the moment, the [pair is falling to test the low at 1.1764. After rebounding from this level, the asset may correct upwards to reach 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 1.1882, 1.1956, and 1.2015 respectively. A breakout of the local low and the support at 1.1764 will complete the pullback and lead to a further downtrend.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the mid-term downtrend continues. The first descending wave after divergence on MACD tested 23.6% fibo at 109.52 and then rebounded from it, which may be considered as a pullback to the upside. After the pullback is over, the instrument may start another descending wave to reach 38.2% fibo at 108.20, while the next downside target will be at 50.0% fibo at 107.13. The local resistance is at 111.66.

The H1 chart shows a breakout of 23.6% fibo and a test of this level from below. The closest downside targets are inside the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 109.08 and 108.81 respectively. The local resistance is at 110.70.