I know it is early and ranges are modest but the NZD is the strongest of the majors and the JPY is the weakest. That makes the NZDJPY the biggest mover. It is up 0.22% on the day.
Looking at the hourly chart below, that pair moved to the lowest level since January flash crash on Friday. That move fell to an old trend line (that was broken on May 31 but moved back above on June 3) The move higher today is also back above the swing low from June 3. Can the pair stay above that old low and start a bigger correction higher? We will see.
The USDJPY has extended to new highs for day, and is above a near flat trend line connected the last few day’s highs on the hourly chart. However, the price still remains below the high for the week at 108.796 reached on Tuesday. That high got close to another trend line (fell a couple pips short of the line) as traders leaned (risk was defined and limited).
The low today actually made a new week low for the week at 108.152 (taking out the low from yesterday at 108.16. The retail sales data ruined the idea of moving lower. Now the buyers are making a bullish play. Although higher, and making new day highs, the pair has had a pretty lethargic week for the pair. The total pip range is only about 65 pips. That is 3rd lowest week trading range this year (and top 3 going back to 2014 as well). That is not good for traders. The move above the 200 and 100 hour MAs today tilt the bias back to the bullish side for the pair. The 100 hour moving average currently comes in at 108.438. The 200 hour moving average currently comes in at 108.365.
As we can see in the H4 chart, BTCUSD hasn’t completed the correction yet. After reaching 38.2% fibo, the pair may yet continue moving towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 7012.00 and 6522.00 respectively. However, in the current attempts to grow transform into a new rising wave, the instrument may break the high at 9098.70 and then reach its mid-term target at 50.0% fibo (10170.00).
In the H1 chart. BTCUSD is being corrected upwards and has already reached 50.0% fibo. The next upside target may be 61.8% fibo at 8458.00. At the same time, there is a divergence on MACD, which may indicate the completion of the local tendency. The key target of a possible descending impulse may be the low at 7435.10.
ETHUSD, “Ethereum vs. US Dollar”
As we can see in the H4 chart, ETHUSD is finishing correctional descending wave at 38.2% fibo and may start a new one to the upside. If the price fails to form a proper rising impulse and break the high at 288.99, the instrument may start another descending wave to reach 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 217.63 and 200.91 respectively.
In the H1 chart, the convergence made the pair start a new uptrend, which has almost reached 61.8% fibo at 265.15. The next upside target may be 76.0% fibo at 273.93. If the instrument breaks the support at 226.56, it may continue its mid-term downtrend.
122.17-122.222 have a cluster of support in the EURJPY
The EURJPY is back down testing a cluster of support defined by the 200 hour MA, 50% midpoint retracement and the earlier low for the day. The corrective move higher today (off the earlier lows) stalled in a swing area defined by recent swing highs and lows. So the pairs 2nd fall today, comes after holding topside resistance. Bearish. A move below the support area should solicit more selling with the 122.00 natural level and the 61.8% of the move up from the June 6 low at 121.944 the next downside targets. PS the USDJPY is down testing the 200 hour MA after offiically completing the down and up lap up at 108.53. The 200 hour MA comes in at 108.336.
As we can see in the H4 chart, there was a divergence on MACD, which made AUDUSD complete the correctional uptrend at 38.2% fibo and start a new decline. If the price starts a new rising impulse, the upside target may be 50.0% fibo at 0.7034. Still, the current decline is looking quite stable, that’s why the instrument is expected to break the low at 0.6864 and mid-term 61.8% fibo at 0.6833.
In the H1 chart, the divergence made AUDUSD start a new downtrend, which has already reached 76.0% fibo. In this light, the instrument is expected to break the low and then continue falling towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 0.6804 and 0.6766 respectively.
USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”
As we can see in the H4 chart, the current descending impulse has reached 61.8% fibo. Right now, the pair is forming an upwards pullback towards the resistance at 38.2% fibo at 1.3374. After completing the pullback, the price may start a new descending wave towards 76.0% fibo at 1.3187.
The H1 chart shows more detailed structure of the current correctional uptrend, which is heading towards 38.2% fibo at 1.3346 or even higher, 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 1.3402 and 1.3440 respectively. The local support is the low at 1.3240.
Levels of the AUDUSD through the employment report
Australian employment data will be released in the new trading day. The estimate is for
employment change of 16.0K vs 28.4K last month.
Unemployment rate is exected to fall to 5.1% from 5.2%.
Full time jobs fell -6.3K last month
Part time jobs rose 34.7K last month.
The AUDUSD has moved lower since peaking last on Friday. The fall today fell away from the
200 hour MA (at 0.69678 currrently),
below a trend line,
the 50% retracement at 0.69429,
and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.69369.
The 100 bar MA and the 50% retracement will be risk/bias shifting levels in the new day. Trade back above those levels, and the bias tilts more back to the upside (likely on stronger data). On the downside, the 0.6896 to 0.6904 is home to a number of swing levels (see red numbered circles). A move below that level will have traders looking toward the May lows at 0.6864. Below that level, and the 2016 low at 0.6826 and the January 3 flash crash low at 0.6741
The AUDUSD has been waffling up and down in trading today. The low to high trading range is only 20 pips on the day. The 22 day average is 41 pips. So the range is 1/2 what is normal over the last month of trading. The price has been trading above and below an old floor area at the 0.6956 level. The market is unsure what to do now.
The most recent high in the NY session stalled at the 200 hour MA (green line currently at 0.6963). The price is also below the 50% retracement of the move up from the May 30 low at 0.69599. Stay below each keeps the sellers more in control/tlts the bias to the downside. If the sellers are able to keep the the lid on the pair (stay below 200 hour MA), the 61.8% at 0.69453, and then the 0.6935-36 area (swing highs from May 28 and May 30) will be targeted.
