On Friday morning, USDJPY continues consolidating inside the range; investors are quite calm about “safe haven” assets.

The Japanese Yen is correcting against the USD on Friday after strengthening the day before. The current quote for the instrument is 109.08.

Demand for the Yen has been more active recently due to an outbreak of the Chinese coronavirus. Market players weren’t sure that the outbreak would have no impact on real economic features. Probably, they were thinking that the Chinese population may reduce their retail sales and focus more on treatment and protecting their health. This, in its turn, might influence the country’s industrial production and, hence, requirements for raw materials and energies. This was the exact reason for panic on the market and investors’ needs for “safe haven” assets were in favor of the Yen.

The statistics published by Japan in the morning showed that the Unemployment Rate in the country remained at 2.2% in December against the expected reading of 2.3%. The Tokyo Core CPI, the leading indicator for inflation in the country showed 0.7% y/y in January against 0.8% y/y the month before. It’s not a good piece of news.

The Retail Sales y/y lost 2.6% y/y in December after adding 2.1% y/y in November and against the expected reading of -1.7% y/y.

The preliminary report of the Industrial Production showed +1.3% m/m in December after being -1.0% m/m in the previous month. The indicator is reaching stability and that’s a good sign.

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the ascending channel continues. By now, EURUSD has formed several reversal candlestick patterns, including Hammer, close to the channel’s downside border. We may assume that later the price may reverse and get back to 1.1180 to continue the ascending tendency. However, one shouldn’t exclude a possibility that the price may resume falling towards 1.1070.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair continues growing inside the rising channel again. The current situation implies that the price may reach 109.67, test the resistance level, and then rebound from it to continue moving inside the channel. The downside target may be at 108.76. At the same time, the pair may choose another scenario and start a new growth to break the channel’s upside border.

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, EURUSD is consolidating. In this case, the price is expected to test 3/8, rebound from it, and then resume trading upwards to reach the resistance at 5/8. After that, the instrument may break this level as well and continue growing towards the resistance at 6/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue moving upwards.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, GBPUSD is moving below 3/8. In this case, the price is expected to continue falling towards the support at 0/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument is expected to continue growing to reach the resistance at 5/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue trading downwards to reach 0/8 from the H4 chart.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY is moving near 3/8. In this case, the price is expected to rebound from this level and then resume falling to reach the support at 0/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may start a new growth towards the resistance at 5/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCAD is moving close to the “oversold area”. In this case, the pair may test 0/8, rebound from it, and then resume growing to reach the resistance at 3/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 0/8. After that, the instrument may continue falling towards the support at -2/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue moving upwards.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is correcting towards 1.1090. Possibly, today the pair may fall with the short-term target at 1.1120 and then form one more ascending structure towards 1.1163, at least. Later, the market may start another decline to reach 1.1090.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is forming the fifth correctional wave with the target at 1.2822. Today, the pair may reach 1.2888 and then start a new growth towards 1.3050. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure to reach the above-mentioned target.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After completing the ascending impulse towards 0.9744, USDCHF has finished the correction at 0.9666. Possibly, today the pair may break this range to the upside to reach the short-term target at 0.9807. After that, the instrument may start a new decline to reach 0.9740 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 0.9844.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has finished the ascending impulse towards 108.40. Today, the pair may correct to reach 108.05 and then start another growth with the target at 108.76.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has reached 0.6860; right now, it is consolidating near the lows. Possibly, the pair may form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.6945.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is consolidating around 62.00. The main scenario implies that the price may continue trading inside the downtrend towards 61.20. Later, the market may correct towards 63.00 and then resume moving downwards to reach 60.90.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

After reaching the short-term target at 1.2970, USDCAD continues moving downwards to reach 1.2950; right now, it is consolidating around 1.2985. Later, the market may break this range to the upside and start another correction towards 1.3060 and then form a new descending structure with the target at 1.2950.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold continues moving upwards. Possibly, today the pair may test 1581.50 from above and then resume trading inside the uptrend towards with the target at 1627.38. After that, the instrument may start a new decline to reach 1606.50 and then form one more ascending structure towards 1656.65.

BRENT

Brent has reached the short-term target at 71.31; right now, it is correcting towards 69.72. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target is at 73.50.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After breaking 7700.00 to the upside, BTCUSD continues forming the third ascending wave towards 8600.00. Possibly, today the pair may reach this level and then start a new correction with the target at 7700.00.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, there was a divergence on MACD, which made the pair reverse downwards after reaching 61.8% fibo. GBPUSD got very close to the support at 38.2% fibo (1.2883), but couldn’t test it. The current growth may be considered as a correction. However, taking into account a divergence on MACD, we may assume that the next descending impulse may break the support. Still, we shouldn’t exclude an opposite scenario: the instrument may start another rising wave towards 76.0% fibo at 1.3794.

The H4 chart shows that the descending wave has corrected the previous uptrend by 38.2% fibo; the current growth may be considered as a correction, which has already reached 61.8% fibo and may continue towards 76.0% fibo at 1.3368 and the high at 1.3514. However, right now the price is falling to break the low at 1.2904. if it succeeds, the instrument may continue its mid-term decline towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 1.2856 and 1.2700 respectively.

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

In the daily chart, there was a divergence on MACD, which made the pair reverse downwards after reaching 50.0% fibo. Right now, EURJPY is testing the mid-term local support. If the price breaks 38.2 fibo and fixes below it, the instrument will continue falling towards the low at 115.86. An alternative scenario implies that the price may rebound from the support and resume trading upwards to reach 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 123.05 and 124.69 respectively.

The H4 chart shows more detailed structure of the current descending correction. The pair is getting close to 38.2% fibo at 120.06. The next downside targets may be 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 119.25 and 118.46 respectively. The resistance is the high at 122.65.

On Wednesday afternoon, EURUSD continues the decline it started yesterday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1150.

Investors like the USD right now and one of the reasons for that is good American numbers published yesterday. For example, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI increased up to 55.0 points in December after being 53.9 points the month before and against the expected reading of 54.5 points.

The components of the report show that the Business Activity improved from 51.6 points to 57.2 points, while two other items dropped a bit: the New Orders decreased from 57.1 points to 54.9 points and the Employment – from 55.5 points to 55.2 points.

However, broadly speaking the positive comes from changes in global tariffs. At the same time, market players didn’t pay any attention to the Factory Orders, which lost 0.7% m/m in November after adding 0.2% m/m in the previous month. Geopolitical pressure on the USD is getting weaker. After the Iranian major general Qasem Soleimani was killed in a targeted U.S. drone strike, the American market was very worrying about the escalation in the US-Iranian conflict, but right now the political intensity is reducing. However, it is important to remember that the current situation is as “fragile” as before: it didn’t have any continuations, but even theoretical scenario of what may happen are very frightening.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7003; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6990 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7055. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6940. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6870.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6729; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6705 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6785. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the support level. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6655. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6580.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.3049; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.3070 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.2975. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.3110. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.3190.

GBPUSD reached stability at the end of the year but 2020 is anticipated to be as volatile as 2019.

By the end of 2019, the British Pound managed to pull itself out of a dive but the upcoming year is very unlikely to be easy for the British currency.

As early as at the beginning of January, the British Parliament will face a difficult task to ratify the agreement with the European Union. The Brexit deadline is January 31st, 2020 and if the exiting procedure fails to feature a somewhat proper trade agreement, the national currency will certainly suffer from stress.

The Bank of England is not expected to introduce any significant changes to its monetary policy in 2020, at least in the first six months. Most likely, the British regulator will continue watching the Brexit and talks with the European Union relating to the second phase of the exiting procedure.

The first BoE meeting is scheduled for January 31st, 2020. It’s not clear whether it is a coincidence or not, but looks pretty symbolical.

Moreover, in January the BoE Governor Mark Carney will be replaced by Andrew Bailey, the Chief Executive Officer of the Financial Conduct Authority. Basically, Bailey is not expected to significantly change the monetary policy of the British regulator, at least in winter. The future remains to be seen.

Everything that is going to have a significant influence on the British currency is the Brexit and the Brexit alone. In this light, macroeconomic reports to be published by the United Kingdom go on the back burner. So, if the exiting procedure goes off without a hitch, the Pound will remain standing.

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the ascending channel continues. By now, EURUSD has formed several reversal candlestick patterns, including Hanging Man, close to the channel’s upside border. We may assume that later the price may reverse and get back to 1.1136 to continue the ascending tendency. However, one shouldn’t exclude a possibility that the price may continue growing towards 1.1257.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair is trading near the rising channel’s downside border and has already formed Hammer pattern. The current situation implies that the price may reverse and then resume growing towards 109.60 to continue the ascending tendency. At the same time, the pair may choose another scenario and start a new decline to reach 108.50.