Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 26.08.2021 (Brent, Dow Jones)

Brent

In the H4 chart, Brent is steadily moving upwards after convergence on MACD and has already reached 50.0% fibo. Later, the asset may continue growing towards 61.8% fibo at 72.72. This ascending movement should be considered as a correction, that’s why it may later be followed by a new decline to break the low at 65.03 and reach the mid-term 23.6% fibo at 62.90. The resistance is still close to the high at 77.48.

BRENT_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the H1 chart, divergence on MACD is making the price complete the ascending wave and may indicate a new decline soon to reach 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 70.36, 69.35, 68.53, 67.70, and 66.72 respectively. The resistance is the local high at 72.01.

BRENT_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Dow Jones

The daily chart shows another attempt to grow and break the high at 35631.0. However, as long as the price is moving below the high, divergence on MACD may force the index to continue falling. In this case, the bearish targets are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 31500.0, 28980.0, 26925.0, and 24870.0 respectively.

US30CASH
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the asset is moving upwards and has already reached 76.0% fibo. This technical picture implies that the index may break the high at 35631.0 and continue growing towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 36035.0 and 36288.00 respectively. The local support is the low at 34569.0.

DJI
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The Euro stopped growing. Overview for 26.08.2021

EURUSD is hanging in the air while anticipating the results of the first day of the Jackson Hole symposium.

The major currency pair is looking rather neutral on Thursday – everyone is expecting something to happen in Jackson Hole. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1764.

Actually, monetary policymakers will mostly talk online due to the pandemic. Today, investors are completely focused on the speech to be delivered by Jerome Powell, the US Fed chairman. No one really knows what he might say but he is mostly expected to be quite “soft” and avoid talking about an early reduction of the regulator’s stimulus programs at the end of this year. The more signals in favour of an early decrease in the QE, the better for the USD. On the other hand, the softer and more blurred QE-related comments, the higher the probability the “greenback” falls.

Among the things that may support the American currency is the piece of news saying that the USA approved vaccines from Pfizer and BioNTech, which may significantly boost the anti-coronavirus vaccination campaign. In this case, the USA may take the pandemic under control early in 2022. It means that both businesses and consumers may become more active, at least in theory. All this is undoubtedly positive for the economy.

As for the statistics, today one should pay attention to the second estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2021, which is expected to show 6.7% against the previous estimate. The stronger the data, the better for the USD.

The Yen is plummeting. Overview for 26.08.2021

USDJPY has been growing for the third consecutive trading session.

The Japanese Yen is quickly falling against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 110.20.

The problem is probably not the external background – of course, there is a demand for risks, which reduces the interest to the “safe” Yen. However, the key reasons are more global, for example, the semiconductor supply shortage. That’s quite a hit in the Japanese economy’s pocket because it’s the reason why Toyota is ready to shut down 14 facilities and reduce the output by 40% in September alone.

Shortage of chips may remain an issue at least until the end of 2021 if the pandemic continues to have a negative influence on businesses in Asia. The increasing number of new coronavirus cases in Japan, Malaysia, and China forces manufacturers to be more cautious when planning long-term. It’s not good news for the Japanese economy.

The semiconductor crisis did a lot of damage to the Japanese car manufacturers. Decreases in tax payments will influence both the country’s budget and economy in the future. Shutdowns of car factories will surely affect the export, the thing that is supporting the current recovery of the Japanese economy. However, no one can say right now when this crisis is over.

rfxsignals August 24, 2021 No Comments

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USDCHF SELL-0.91119
SL-0.91521
TP1-0.90932
TP2-0.90737

USDJPY SELL-109.514
SL-110.009
TP1-109.281
TP2-108.991

GBPJPY SELL-150.226
SL-150.723
TP1-150.015
TP2-149.788

GBPCHF SELL-1.24984
SL-1.25411
TP1-1.24771
TP2-1.24572

EURJPY SELL-128.631
SL-129.101
TP1-128.444
TP2-128.233

GBPUSD SELL-1.37053
SL-1.37508
TP1-1.36824
TP2-1.36627

rfxsignals August 18, 2021 No Comments

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GBPAUD SELL-1.89193
SL-1.89745
TP1-1.88970
TP2-1.88725

GBPCHF SELL-1.25411
SL-1.25726
TP1-1.25235
TP2-1.25066

EURNZD BUY -1.69422
SL-1.68774
TP1-1.69753
TP2-1.70036

AUDUSD SELL-0.72567
SL-0.72884
TP1-0.72362
TP2-0.72136

USDCHF SELL-0.91256
SL-0.91521
TP1-0.91019
TP2-0.90812

EURAUD BUY -1.61597
SL-1.61050
TP1-1.61887
TP2-1.62207
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Murrey Math Lines 23.07.2021 (Brent, S&P 500)

BRENT

In the H4 chart, after breaking the 200-day Moving Average, Brent is trading above it, thus indicating an ascending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to continue growing towards the resistance at 8/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the asset breaks 6/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may move downwards and reach the support at 5/8.

BRENT_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue its growth.

BRENT_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

In the H4 chart, the S&P Index is trading above the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating an ascending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to continue growing towards the resistance at +1/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the asset breaks 8/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may fall to reach the support at 7/8.

S&P 500_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue trading upwards.

S&P 500_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 23.07.2021 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is still trading upwards. After forming several reversal patterns, such as Inverted Hammer, not from the support level, XAUUSD may reverse and start a new growth to reach the resistance area at 1830.00. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may correct towards 1795.00 before resuming its ascending tendency.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is testing the channel’s upside border. By now, NZDUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Harami, close to the resistance level. At the moment, the asset may reverse and resume falling. In this case, the downside target is the support area at 0.6900. After testing this level, the asset may break it and continue moving downwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may correct towards 0.7020 before resuming its decline.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after finishing the correction, the asset is trading within the downtrend. By now, GBPUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Harami, not far from the resistance area. At the moment, the pair may reverse and start a new decline towards the support level. In this case, the downside target may be at 1.3640. After testing this level, the market may break it and continue falling. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may grow towards the resistance area at 1.3800 before resuming its descending tendency.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 23.07.2021 (EURUSD, AUDUSD, EURAUD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1770; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.1795 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1665. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the resistance level. However, the bearish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1850. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1945. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the support level and fix below 1.1755.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7371; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.7405 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.7195. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7455. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7545.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURAUD, “Euro vs Australian Dollar”

EURAUD is trading at 1.5967; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.5855 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.6255. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.5805. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.5705. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the descending channel’s upside border and fix above 1.6030.

EURAUD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 23.07.2021 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, after breaking 61.8% fibo at 0.7379, the downtrend has failed to reach 76.0% fibo at 0.7236. At the same time, we can see divergence on MACD, which may force the asset to start a pullback to the upside. However, this ascending movement is not expected to reach the high at 0.8007. In the future, this pullback may be followed by another descending wave to reach the fractal support at 0.6991.

AUDUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart of AUDUSD shows potential correctional targets after convergence on MACD, which are 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 0.7431, 0.7519, and 0.7590 respectively. A breakout of the low at 0.7289 will result in a further downtrend.

AUDUSD_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, after finishing the first ascending wave at 23.6% fibo, USDCAD is correcting and may later resume its mid-term uptrend towards 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 1.3024, 1.3338, 1.3648, and 1.4028 respectively. The key support remains at the low at 1.2007.

USDCAD_D1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H4 chart shows a descending correction after divergence on MACD, which has already broken 23.6% fibo and may later continue towards 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 1.2501, 1.2406, 1.3212, and 1.21999 respectively. The local resistance is at 1.2807.

USDCAD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The Euro fell a little bit. Overview for 23.07.2021

EURUSD continues analysing the ECB meeting results and the demand for “safe haven” assets.

The major currency pair is falling at the end of another trading week. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1777.

During its July meeting that was over yesterday, the European Central Bank left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at zero and confirmed its intentions to pursue the ultra-soft monetary policy for a long period of time. the ECB Governor Christine Lagarde said that a new coronavirus wave might threaten the economic recovery procedure in Europe despite the regulator’s balanced approach to building economic outlooks.

Many global Central Banks are considering a possibility to scale down their stimulus programs but the ECB is not one of them. In the long-term, this factor may pressure the European currency pretty much.

In the comments after the meeting, the regulator said that the Euro Area economy recovered in the second quarter of 2021 and was feeling quite well after social restrictions were removed. The ECB’s expectations about industrial production are positive despite some issues with the delivery of parts and components. The delta strain of the COVIDS-19 may slow down the services industry recovery, it’s still a huge risk.

According to the ECB, the economic activity will return to its pre-crisis levels in the first quarter of 2022. However, it will require a lot of time and effort to eliminate the effects of the pandemic.

In June, inflation was 1.9% and the ECB is expecting it to continue growing in the coming months. The indicator may drop in 2022, after local factors, such as an upsurge in energy prices, disappear.