Month: August 2021

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is correcting. After forming a Harami pattern close to the resistance level, USDCAD may reverse and form a new pullback towards the channel’s downside border. In this case, the correctional target may be the support area at 1.2610. However, an alternative scenario implies that the asset may continue growing to reach 1.2790 without testing the support area.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, while testing the channel’s upside border, AUDUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Harami. At the moment, the asset is reversing. In this case, the downside target may be at 0.7155. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may return to the resistance area at 0.7275 first and then resume trading downwards.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is finishing another correction. By now, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, for example, Hammer and Harami, close to the channel’s downside border. At the moment, USDCHF is reversing and may later grow towards the resistance level. In this case, the upside target may be at 0.9220. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may correct towards 0.9130 first and then resume trading upwards.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 1.1777 and finishing the first descending impulse at 1.1741, EURUSD is correcting to the upside to reach 1.1763, thus forming a new consolidation range around 1.1754. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 1.1720; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure towards 1.1788 and then start a new decline to reach the above-mentioned target.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 1.3767 and completing the descending impulse at 1.3680, GBPUSD is forming a new consolidation range around 1.3690. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may fall to reach 1.3650; if to the upside – correct to test 1.3727 from below and then resume trading within the downtrend with the target at 1.3600.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has finished another ascending structure at 74.45; right now, it is consolidating below this level. Possibly, today the pair may break this range to the downside and resume trading downwards to break 73.80. After that, the instrument may continue falling with the target at 72.88.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After rebounding from 110.20, USDJPY is trading downwards to reach 109.50. Possibly, the pair may break the latter level and then continue moving within the downtrend with the short-term target at 108.96.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has finished the ascending structure at 0.9166; right now, it is consolidating around this level. Today, the pair may fall towards 0.9161 and then resume growing to break 0.9191. After that, the instrument may continue trading upwards with the short-term target at 0.9222.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 0.7277, AUDUSD continues falling towards 0.7207. Later, the market may grow to reach 0.7234 and then resume trading within the downtrend with the target at 0.7070.

BRENT

After rebounding from 72.00 and finishing the correctional structure at 70.25, Brent is growing towards 72.22 and may later start a new correction to return to 70.25. If the price breaks the latter level to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 68.60 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 75.00. On the other hand, the asset may grow to break 72.22 and then continue moving upwards to reach the above-mentioned target.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After completing the correction at 1780.80 and rebounding from this level, Gold is still moving upwards to reach 1812.82. Later, the market may start a new correction with the target at 1750.00.

S&P 500

After finishing the descending structure at 4468.2, the S&P index is moving upwards to reach 4484.0. if later the price breaks the latter level to the upside, the market may continue trading upwards to reach 4515.5. On the other hand, if the asset falls and breaks 4468.0, the instrument may form one more descending structure with the target at 4380.0.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1761; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.1730 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.1875. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.1675. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.1585.

GBPAUD, “Great Britain Pound vs Australian Dollar”

GBPAUD is trading at 1.8897; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.8925 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.8745. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the upside border of a Triangle pattern. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.9105. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.9205. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the pattern’s downside border and fix below 1.8875.

AUDCAD, “Australian Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

AUDCAD is trading at 0.9186; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.9165 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.9275. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending trendline. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.9125. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.9095. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the resistance level and fix above 0.9230, thus completing the formation of a Double Bottom reversal pattern.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

In the daily chart, the downtrend is looking quite stable despite the current correction to the upside, which started after an attempt to test 38.2% at 0.7052. After the pullback is over, the asset may continue trading towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 0.6758 and 0.6464 respectively. The key resistance is the high at 0.8007.

The H4 chart of AUDUSD shows the potential upside correctional targets are convergence on MACD – 23,6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% at 0.7292, 0.7406, and 0.7498 respectively. A breakout of the local support at 0.7106 will lead to a further mid-term downtrend.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, after an attempt to reach 38.2% fibo at 1.3022 and local divergence on MACD, the pair is correcting downwards. After finishing the pullback, the asset may form a new wave to the upside with the targets at 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 1.3336 and 1.3650 respectively. The key support remains at the low at 1.2007.

The H4 chart shows the potential targets of the current descending correction. After divergence on MACD, the pair was falling and reached 38.2% but then rebounded from it. The next descending impulse may head towards 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 1.2478, 1.2366, and 1.2234 respectively. The local resistance is the fractal high at 1.2949.

EURUSD remains stable in anticipation of Powell’s comments.

The major currency pair remains neutral in anticipation of the speech to be delivered by the US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1760.

Yesterday, monetary policymakers shared their opinions in Jackson Hole and commented on the reduction of the regulator’s stimulus programs. The common voice is quite positive and the current economic recovery allows to decrease the QE program volume as early as the end of 2021. The key reason for this is the inflation boost and uncertainty of how the indicator might behave next year.

At the moment, the volume of the Fed’s program is $120 billion every month. Sure, this volume might have been already reduced – it is what market players are expecting since the American economy improved pretty much, which is confirmed by the macroeconomic statistics.

The second estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2021 was good: the indicator showed 6.6% against the previous estimate of 6.5%. although it was expected to improve up to 6.7%. However, there will be the third estimate, which may show an even better number.

Today, apart from the comments from Jackson Hole, one should pay attention to the reports on the Personal Income/Spending from the USA. Also, there will be the revised data on the Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan, which is expected to improve in August.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the correction within the uptrend continues. After forming several reversal patterns, such as Hammer, not far from the support level, XAUUSD may reverse and start a new growth to reach the resistance area at 1830.00. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may continue falling towards 1760.50 before resuming its ascending tendency.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after testing the resistance area, NZDUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Harami. At the moment, the asset may reverse in the form of a new pullback. In this case, the correctional target may be the support level at 0.6905. After testing this level, the asset may rebound from it and continue moving upwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may grow to reach 0.7035 without correcting towards the support level.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is still forming another correctional wave. By now, GBPUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Hammer and Engulfing, not far from the support level. At the moment, the pair is reversing and starting a new growth. In this case, the upside target may be the channel’s upside border at 1.3785. After testing this level, the market may rebound from it and resume falling. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may fall towards the next support area at 1.3640 without testing the resistance area.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is trading at 0.9146; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.9155 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.9010. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the upside border of a Triangle pattern. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.9190. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.9275. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the pattern’s downside border and fix below 0.9085.

EURJPY, “Euro vs Japanese Yen”

EURJPY is trading at 129.38; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 128.95 and then resume moving upwards to reach 130.60. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 128.25. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 127.35.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is trading at 109.98; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 109.75 and then resume moving upwards to reach 111.05. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the downside border of the Triangle pattern. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 109.25. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 108.35. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the pattern’s upside border and fix above 110.30.

Brent

In the H4 chart, Brent is steadily moving upwards after convergence on MACD and has already reached 50.0% fibo. Later, the asset may continue growing towards 61.8% fibo at 72.72. This ascending movement should be considered as a correction, that’s why it may later be followed by a new decline to break the low at 65.03 and reach the mid-term 23.6% fibo at 62.90. The resistance is still close to the high at 77.48.

As we can see in the H1 chart, divergence on MACD is making the price complete the ascending wave and may indicate a new decline soon to reach 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 70.36, 69.35, 68.53, 67.70, and 66.72 respectively. The resistance is the local high at 72.01.

Dow Jones

The daily chart shows another attempt to grow and break the high at 35631.0. However, as long as the price is moving below the high, divergence on MACD may force the index to continue falling. In this case, the bearish targets are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 31500.0, 28980.0, 26925.0, and 24870.0 respectively.

In the H1 chart, the asset is moving upwards and has already reached 76.0% fibo. This technical picture implies that the index may break the high at 35631.0 and continue growing towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 36035.0 and 36288.00 respectively. The local support is the low at 34569.0.

USDJPY has been growing for the third consecutive trading session.

The Japanese Yen is quickly falling against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 110.20.

The problem is probably not the external background – of course, there is a demand for risks, which reduces the interest to the “safe” Yen. However, the key reasons are more global, for example, the semiconductor supply shortage. That’s quite a hit in the Japanese economy’s pocket because it’s the reason why Toyota is ready to shut down 14 facilities and reduce the output by 40% in September alone.

Shortage of chips may remain an issue at least until the end of 2021 if the pandemic continues to have a negative influence on businesses in Asia. The increasing number of new coronavirus cases in Japan, Malaysia, and China forces manufacturers to be more cautious when planning long-term. It’s not good news for the Japanese economy.

The semiconductor crisis did a lot of damage to the Japanese car manufacturers. Decreases in tax payments will influence both the country’s budget and economy in the future. Shutdowns of car factories will surely affect the export, the thing that is supporting the current recovery of the Japanese economy. However, no one can say right now when this crisis is over.